Post- Super Tuesday Narrative Check (UPDATED - Bloomberg Out)

Before last weekend's South Carolina primary, the narrative was of a faltering Joe Biden, by most accounts, barely clinging to life.  Following a ringing endorsement by South Carolina power broker Rep. James Clyburn, Biden outperformed expectations, winning an overwhelming percentage of the crucial African American vote (4-1) across age groups, as well as performing well in swing suburban districts that were the type fueling the blue wave in 2018.  Last night, that momentum carried into the 14 Super Tuesday states, where many of the same demographic characteristics seen in South Carolina voting were replicated, as well as late- deciders mostly breaking for Biden.  So, one lesson from yesterday is "beware of narratives."

That said, here's your new narrative:  For better or worse, this is a two- person race, and that race is far from over.  Obviously, there are more primaries next Tuesday and more following that.  Two- thirds of the delegate total are up for grabs.  We anticipate more culling is possible between now and late March, if not sooner, which may affect the current alignment. (Update: see below)

Here's something else to keep in mind:  When you hear people talking about the "Democratic establishment" circling the wagons, remember that the "establishment" that came to Biden's rescue was hundreds of thousands of African American voters -- the core of the Democratic base.  People vote, not "establishments."  And the people that are voting so far represent not an expanded Democratic electorate of young, previously un- engaged voters, but the over- 45 set (two- thirds of the vote).  In making their decisions, the majority have one thing on their mind that transcends ideological labels:  kicking existential threat Donald "Rump" Trump out of the White House.

So, this should be the only narrative emerging out of the primary season:  There is imperfect and there is evil -- Don't.  Let.  Evil. Win.

UPDATE:

Michael Bloomberg drops out of the US presidential race following his dismal Super Tuesday showing and endorses Joe Biden https://t.co/RrTC8iMsn4 pic.twitter.com/dsFxXQEQWq

— CNN Breaking News (@cnnbrk) March 4, 2020

Bloomberg: “I’ve always believed that defeating Donald Trump starts with uniting behind the candidate with the best shot to do it. After yesterday’s vote, it is clear that candidate is my friend and a great American, Joe Biden.”

UPDATE II:  Don't believe any narrative that tells you Democratic enthusiasm is flat --

By the way Republicans....

Voter Turnout vs. 2016

Virginia +23%
South Carolina +21%
North Carolina +20%
Texas pacing at + 27% 😳
Tennessee pacing at + 19%
Maine pacing at +17%
Alabama pacing at +22%
Oklahoma pacing at +16%
Colorado pacing at +12%

We’re coming for you.#ETTD

— YS (@NYinLA2121) March 4, 2020

Super Tuesday 2020

Today, Democrats in 14 states and a territory will vote for their choice for President.  Those states are (from east to west):  Maine, Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia, North Carolina,Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, Utah, California and American Samoa. They will deciding how 1,357 delegates will be apportioned among the candidates.

Here, courtesy of the Washington Post, is a starting point of what you should know about today, Super Tuesday:

-- It is the single day when the most states hold primaries or caucuses, the most voters have a chance to go to the polls, and the most delegates will be allotted to candidates. More than a third of all delegates for the Democratic National Convention are up for grabs on this one day.

-- Poll closing times vary by state: Vermont’s polls close first at 7 p.m. Eastern, and California’s last at 11 p.m. Eastern. We won’t know all the results Tuesday, because the tabulating of votes could go late into the night, especially on the West Coast. California’s results will take days, at least, as mail-in ballots must be postmarked by primary day.

-- Before Super Tuesday, less than 5 percent of delegates will have been allotted. After: 38 percent.

The states voting today are somewhat more diverse than states that follow, with the Hispanic population significantly greater than that in the U.S. population as a whole.

Whether you've already voted, or you're voting today, or you're voting in the future contests, always remember that the evil to be vanquished is not one of the Democrats running, and that in the end we must unite behind whoever comes out of the convention as the nominee. There's simply no option if we are to save our country from becoming a banana republic.

BONUS:  Please read Infidel 753's Super Tuesday reminder and take his message to heart.

(Image:  fivethirtyeight.com)