Historic GDP Contraction, Unemployment Claims Rise

As COVID-19 continues to spread unchecked and deaths approach 154,000 (conservatively), the U.S. gross domestic product for the second quarter (April- June) contracted at an historic 9.5 percent (annualized rate of 32.9 percent), the worst plunge ever recorded based on data compiled since 1947.

The U.S. economy shrank 9.5 percent from April through June, the largest quarterly decline since the government began publishing data 70 years ago, and the latest, sobering reflection of the pandemic’s economic devastation.

The second quarter report on gross domestic product covers some of the economy’s worst weeks in living memory, when commercial activity ground to a halt, millions of Americans lost their jobs and the nation went into lockdown. Yet economists say the data should also serve as a cautionary tale for what’s at stake if the recovery slips away, especially as rising coronavirus cases in some states have forced businesses to close once again.

GDP shrank at an annual rate of 32.9 percent, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the agency that publishes the statistics on quarterly economic activity. While it usually stresses the annualized rate, that figure is less useful this quarter because the economy is unlikely to experience another collapse like it did in the second quarter.

Another surge in unemployment claims completes the COVID/ GDP/ unemployment trifecta:

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose again last week, as the economy stalled amid surges of the coronavirus, and extra help from the federal government came to an end.

A total of 1.4 million people filed jobless claims for the first time as businesses given a green light to welcome back customers shut their doors again to slow the spread of COVID 19.

The latest tally means that in less than five months, a stunning 54.1 million have sought unemployment aid for the first time.

Also keep in mind, while this is happening in the real world, the Republican Senate and Trump regime dither and find new ways to make the economic suffering worse for average Americans with their criminally irresponsible "Shitheels Act" (billions for a new FBI building and F-35 fighters, though!).  So far, by refusing to extend enhanced unemployment benefits, these well- heeled, cosseted sociopaths threaten to push the economy even further down the chasm they created.

That it all can be traced back to the mind- numbing inaction of a self- serving, incompetent "president," abetted by a rotted- out party and its media mouthpieces makes this yet another inflection point for the existential need to rid ourselves of these destroyers.

Another 1.5 Million Added To Unemployment Rolls; Coronavirus Rages

The pain and misery caused by a narcissistic buffoon continues:

More than three months into the COVID-19 crisis in the U.S., countless Americans are still unemployed. According to the U.S. Labor Department, weekly initial jobless claims data showed yet another week of claims exceeding 1 million.

Another 1.48 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending June 20, exceeding economists’ expectations for 1.32 million. The prior week’s figure was revised higher to 1.54 million from the previously reported 1.51 million claims. While last week’s report marked 12 consecutive weeks of deceleration, more than 47 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance over the past 14 weeks. (our emphasis)

Once again, a bungled response to a pandemic by an unfit sub- moron caused the economy to largely shut down.  Shuttered businesses, some gone forever;  people losing their livelihoods, homes, etc.;  and a Republican Senate unwilling to extend enhanced unemployment benefits beyond July 31. And, to be sure, the pain is far from over because the response continues to be bungled:

You see that dip? That’s everyone staying home trying to buy time for a test-and-trace program that never happened because we elected a buffoon. https://t.co/1PMXOzTkiD

— Matt Goldberg (@MattGoldberg) June 24, 2020

 

So McConnell rushed to prop up the economy long enough for the donor class to get their finances in order while doing nothing about pandemic response and is now letting it all go to hell?

— Schooley (@Rschooley) June 25, 2020

 

There were 37,000 new coronavirus cases in the US yesterday, a horrifying record.

Meanwhile: https://t.co/3lCsgNN34a

— Ezra Klein (@ezraklein) June 25, 2020

 

Unemployment Claims Rise Another 1.5 Million

Another week, more misery:

Three months into the coronavirus crisis, the U.S. economy is reopening and many Americans are going back to work. But hundreds of thousands are still being laid off.

About 1.5 million workers filed applications for unemployment insurance for the first time last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. That pushes the running tally of those who have made initial claims over the past 13 weeks past a mind-boggling 45 million. First-time claims are a reliable gauge of layoffs.  (our emphasis)

Once again, had we not had a sub- moron in the White House who placed his interests over those of the American people, much of this carnage could have been avoided.

Unemployment Claims Rise; Fed Says Recovery Will Be Slow

Another week, and more misery resulting from "electing" a sub- moron who places his interests above the nation's:

Another 1.5 million people applied for unemployment insurance last week, adding to the tens of millions of people who have applied for the jobless benefits since the pandemic began and continuing a months-long drop in the number of initial claims.

The numbers seeking jobless benefits have remained at historically high levels for 12 weeks, since the coronavirus pandemic took hold in back in March, disrupting global supply chains and shuttering businesses for months.

The number gig and formerly self-employed workers who also applied for jobless benefits newly available to them under the expanded federal program went up to 705,000, from 620,000 the week before.

The total number of people currently receiving benefits edged down slightly to 20.9 million, from a revised 21.3 million the week previously, a staggering toll on the labor force. More than 44 million people have applied for unemployment benefits during the pandemic.

“That means 29 percent of the workforce has filed for unemployment claims during that period,” said Joseph Brusuelas, the chief economist at RSM. “Some may have returned to work. But that’s a stunning number nonetheless.”

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is predicting a miraculous recovery  a slow recovery from the Trump Depression:

Federal Reserve leaders predict a slow recovery for the U.S. economy, with unemployment falling to 9.3 percent by the end of this year and to 6.5 percent by the end of 2021, after tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs in the stunning recession caused by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell stressed Wednesday that more aid from Congress and the central bank is likely to be needed, especially since a substantial number of Americans may never get their jobs back.

“Unemployment remains historically high,” Powell said during a news conference Wednesday. “My assumption is there will be a significant chunk ... well into the millions of people, who don’t get to go back to their old job ... and there may not be a job in that industry for them for some time.”

Bunker Boy isn't going to like that news.

Bunker Boy's measure of success, the New York Stock Exchange, didn't like that news, either:

U.S. markets pointed toward heavy losses Thursday as the Federal Reserve’s gloomy economic outlook, coupled with fears of a second wave of coronavirus infections, rattled investors.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 900 points, or 3 percent, while the Standard & Poor’s and Nasdaq composites also fell sharply. The slide contrasted sharply with the optimism earlier this week that propelled Nasdaq to a record high and above 10,000 for the first time, and pushed the S&P 500 into positive territory.

Most of us could have told all those "smart money" people that putting any faith in Bunker Boy's handling of the economy was bound to be brought to earth by the reality of his ongoing incompetence and failure of leadership.

Speaking of reality, there are now over 2 million confirmed coronavirus cases and 115,000 deaths, again very likely an under- count both of infections and deaths.  And states that re- opened their economies early, with prodding from Bunker Boy and his Republican enablers, are seeing spikes in coronavirus cases.

Unemployment Claims Rise By Another 2.1 Million

The "American carnage" brought on by moron vector Donald" I Don't Take Responsibility At All" Trump's catastrophic bungling of the response to the coronavirus pandemic continues:

Another 2.123 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending May 23, exceeding economists’ expectations for 2.1 million initial jobless claims. The prior week’s figure was revised higher to 2.446 million from 2.438 million jobless claims. Over the past 10 weeks, more than 40 million Americans have filed for unemployment insurance. (our emphasis)

As with the tens of thousands of needless deaths, tens of millions of jobs have been needlessly lost because we have a vicious fool in the Oval Office.

Unemployment Claims Rise Again, As Do Mortgage Delinquency Rates

The nasty consequences of moron vector Donald "I Alone Can Fix It" Trump's bungling, on-going non- response to the coronavirus pandemic continue:

Even as an increasing number of states began reopening their economies across the country, the COVID-19 pandemic continued to wreak havoc on employment in the U.S. last week.

An additional 2.438 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending May 16. Economists were expecting 2.4 million initial jobless claims during the week. The prior week’s figure was revised lower to 2.69 million from the previously reported 2.98 million. Over the past nine weeks, more than 38 million Americans have filed unemployment insurance claims.

“With a ninth straight week of new weekly jobless claims being counted in the millions, although at a lower level than before, one might be tempted to focus on the continuing decline.  But at 2.4 million new claims last week, the seismic impact should not be dismissed because earlier shock waves were larger,” Bankrate Senior Economic Analyst Mark Hamrick said in an email Thursday. “This number of new claims alone is about equal to the population of the city of Houston, Texas.”  (our emphasis)

Then there's another predictable consequence:

Delinquencies among borrowers for past-due mortgages are soaring, a sign that Americans are struggling to pay their bills due to a wave of layoffs or lost income from the coronavirus pandemic.

Mortgage delinquencies surged by 1.6 million in April, the largest single-month jump in history, according to a report from Black Knight, a mortgage technology and data provider. The data includes both homeowners past due on mortgage payments who aren’t in forbearance, along with those in forbearance plans and who didn’t make a mortgage payment in April.

At 6.45%, the national delinquency rate nearly doubled from 3.06% in March, the largest single-month increase ever recorded, and nearly three times the prior record for a single month during the height of the financial crisis in late 2008, Black Knight said.  (our emphasis)

He "fixed it" alright.

Unemployment Claims Rise By Another 3 Million

It didn't have to be this way:

The COVID-19 pandemic’s continued impact on the labor market was highlighted Thursday morning when the U.S. Labor Department released its weekly initial jobless claims report.

Another 2.981 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the week ending May 9 surpassing economists’ estimates for 2.5 million jobless claims for the week. The prior week’s figure was revised higher to 3.18 million from the previously reported 3.17 million jobless claims. Over the past two months, more than 36 million Americans have filed unemployment insurance claims.

Continuing claims, which lags initial jobless claims data by one week, totaled a record 22.83 million in the week ending May 2 following 22.38 million continuing claims in the prior week.  (our emphasis)

The bungling of the COVID-19 response by carnival barker and Giant Toddler Donald "American Carnage" Trump continues to reverberate through the economy.

Unemployment Claims Rise By 3 Million

Today's jobless report:  3.1 million more Americans filed for unemployment benefits in the past week, bringing the running total since the beginning of the bungled response to the COVID-19 pandemic to 33 million.  And that likely doesn't tell the whole story:

In an interview with Savannah Guthrie on NBC's "TODAY" show Thursday morning, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Neel Kashkari, said Friday's official unemployment rate "will probably be something like 16 or 17 percent — but it will understate how bad the damage has been. I think the real number is probably around 23 or 24 percent. It's devastating."

Had we had decisive leadership and science- driven action at the national level when the health experts and intelligence community were warning of the pandemic, there's no doubt this "American carnage" would have been mitigated, along with the appalling death count that's now, at the very minimum, 75,000 -- and expected to rise with ill- advised "re- openings" pushed by the Trump regime.

New Unemployment Claims Rise, Now Over 30 Million

How much of this could have been avoided with a competent, sane person in the Oval Office, who  heeded warnings and took bold steps early on in the coronavirus pandemic:

The American economy continues to stagger under the weight of the coronavirus pandemic, with another 3.8 million workers filing for unemployment benefits last week.

The figures announced Thursday by the Labor Department bring the number of workers joining the official jobless ranks in the last six weeks to more than 30 million, and underscore just how dire economic conditions remain.

Many state agencies still find themselves overwhelmed by the flood of claims, leaving perhaps millions with dwindling resources to pay the rent or put food on the table.

If anything, according to many economists, the job losses may be far worse than government figures indicate. A study by the Economic Policy Institute found that roughly 50 percent more people than counted as filing claims in a recent four-week period may have qualified for benefits but were stymied in applying or didn’t even try because they found the process too formidable.

“The problem is even bigger than the data suggest,” said Elise Gould, a senior economist with the institute, a left-leaning research group. “We’re undercounting the economic pain.”

The blood, and the pain, are on COVID Donnie's hands.

4.4 Million More File For Unemployment

More bad (but expected) news:

For the week ending April 18, another 4.427 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits. Economists were expecting 4.5 million initial jobless claims to be filed for the week. The prior week’s figure was revised lower to 5.237 million from the previously reported 5.245 million. Over the past five weeks, more than 26 million Americans have filed unemployment insurance claims.

That means the unemployment rate is close to 20 percent now.

It can't be emphasized enough that the magnitude of confirmed COVID-19 cases (conservatively pegged at roughly 850,000) and deaths (conservatively closing in on 50,000) and the amount of economic devastation are a direct result the the bungling incompetence and self- interested inaction of shitwaffle Donald "Moron Vector" Trump from the outset of the pandemic.

November 3, 2020.  Take out the trash.

Unemployment Claims Jump By Another 5.2 Million In A Week

This didn't have to happen, but we have a fool in the Oval Office who didn't take action soon enough to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.:

As businesses remain closed during the coronavirus pandemic, an unrelenting jobs crisis continues to push Americans onto unemployment rolls.

Another 5.2 million workers filed for their first week of unemployment benefits last week, according to the US Department of Labor, bringing the total number of Americans who have filed initial jobless claims to around 22 million, or roughly 13.5% of the labor force, since March 14. [snip]

The country's official unemployment rate, which climbed to 4.4% in March, from a historic low of 3.5% in February, is now expected to hit double-digits in April. [snip]

Many economists believe that a spike in unemployment will be temporary and that many — but not all — of the lost jobs will come back when the coronavirus crisis is over. But ultimately, their forecasts are highly uncertain, and the economic recovery will depend on the course of the virus.  (our emphasis)

That final sentence underscores the importance of not relaxing the measures that have been taken by governors and local officials to stop the spread.  We have to win the battle against the virus before we can begin to re- open the economy in any large measure, lest we see a second wave take root and kill even more Americans.  Health officials and even most business leaders understand that (see post below). One dangerous, self- interested sociopath who thinks he has imperial powers does not.

6.6 Million More File For Unemployment Benefits

How much of this could have been avoided if we had a pro- active, competent Democratic administration?

Another wave of 6.6 million American workers filed first-time unemployment claims for the week ending April 4, bringing the cumulative total to an astonishing 16 million over the past three weeks.

For the week ending March 21, 3.3 million people filed new unemployment claims, easily shattering the previous record set in 1982 of 695,000. Last week, that astounding figure doubled, as 6.6 million people filed claims for the week ending March 28 — a figure that was revised upward to 6.9 million in the new release.

Thursday's figure was at the high end of analyst estimates, which ranged from 4.5 million to 7 million. [snip]

The cumulative toll of the last three weeks comes as last week’s Labor Department release showed that the economy shed 701,000 jobs in March — a figure far more negative than anticipated, although economists said it only captured a fraction of the carnage in the labor market that largely took place in the second half of the month. (our emphasis)

"Carnage."  Where have we heard that word before?

Jobless Claims Skyrocket

 The cratering continues apace:

The U.S. Labor Department released fresh data on Thursday morning that showed the effect of the novel coronavirus on employment in the U.S. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits spiked to a record-breaking 6.648 million for the week ending March 28. Consensus expectations were for 3.76 million claims. The prior week’s figure was revised higher to 3.307 million claims from 3.283 million. Prior to the week ending March 21, the previous record was 695,000 claims filed the week ended October 2, 1982. 

(click on image to enlarge)



Expect this to continue for the indefinite future, unfortunately.

As much as you are able, please be generous and kind to those who need help.

BONUS: An epic screw up is approaching tomorrow for small businesses that need loans to survive:

"Banks are warning that a $350 billion lending program for struggling small businesses won't be ready when it launches Friday because the Trump administration has failed to provide them with the necessary guidelines and set requirements for the loans that are unworkable." (our emphasis)

As we saw with the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, these clowns are dangerously incompetent.

BONUS II:

So how bad is it? Unemployment is very likely at or very near 10% right now. That would match the depths of the Great Recession.

It jumps about a point for every 1.5M jobs lost, so if we lost nearly 10M jobs in the last two weeks, that’s a 6.6 percentage point jump.

— Tony Dokoupil (@tonydokoupil) April 2, 2020

Record Unemployment Claims Last Week

We knew the bad news was coming.  Here it is:

Nearly 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week — more than quadruple the previous record set in 1982 — amid a widespread economic shutdown caused by the coronavirus.

The surge in weekly applications was a stunning reflection of the damage the viral outbreak is doing to the economy. Filings for unemployment aid generally reflect the pace of layoffs.

The pace of layoffs is sure to accelerate as the U.S. economy sinks into a recession. Revenue has collapsed at restaurants, hotels, movie theaters, gyms, and airlines. Auto sales are plummeting, and car makers have close factories. Most such employers face loan payments and other fixed costs, so they’re cutting jobs to save money.

As job losses mount, some economists say the nation’s unemployment rate could approach 13% by May. By comparison, the highest jobless rate during the Great Recession, which ended in 2009, was 10%.  (our emphasis)

We sincerely hope the pain that's being felt by so many of our fellow Americans is short- lived. Some of the measures Democrats insisted on including in the just- passed Senate coronavirus relief bill may cushion some of the blow (the expanded and more generous unemployment benefits, the direct payments, and the assistance to small businesses that employ so many and have been disproportionately hurt).  The bill will be taken up in the House of Representatives and is expected to pass quickly.

Minus the AWOL "wartime president," we're all in this together.  Help out your neighbors as much as you can.  Be kind and generous to those who are hurting.

BONUS:  Here's how unprecedented this surge is, in graph form (click to enlarge) --



BONUS II:  But, hey, the motherf*ckers over on Wall Street are loving it today!

BONUS III:   Multi- millionaire Treasury Secretary and former foreclosure king Steve "Missing A Vowel" Mnuchin says no worries, unemployment numbers aren't "relevant."