Tuesday, June 10, 2008
The Beginning of the Bump
Polling taken just days after the Clinton concession is showing a distinct "bump" for Sen. Obama. Gallup has it as 48% for Obama and 42% for McBush; Rasmussen has it as 50% for Obama and 44% for McBush. Actually, we think the Obama numbers might be a little low in the end, since the polling methodologies are resolutely sticking to traditional voter turnout models and essentially ignoring what just happened in the Democratic primaries (millions more registered and voting). George "I Left My Codpiece at Home; May I Borrow Yours?" Will opined this as well in an appearance on Tweety's show yesterday, saying the turnout factor is being ignored by the pollsters (he also says divisions on the Republican side are worse than on the Democratic side - and here's some proof). This is why you're hearing pundits hedging their bets, saying it's going to either be a close race or a landslide. Democrats have to continue reminding themselves, however, "It's only June."