In all the discussion (see below) of what is going on with President Obama and his seemingly inexplicable "strategery" on health care reform, there is an emerging scenario for the endgame. Given that Obama has promised to simultaneously "change the tone in Washington" and deliver health care reform, in reality he's got two "constituencies" (and, sorry, neither of them are progressives) he's got to convince: Senate "Blue Dogs", specifically Baucus, Blanche Lincoln, Ben Nelson, Kent Conrad, etc.; and swing Independents. With that in mind, here's the Grand Unified Theory that's emerging in the blogosphere of what the end game might be about:
1. Come mid-September, when no "bipartisan" bill emerges from the Senate Finance Committee, Obama can then forcefully and honestly say to Baucus, Conrad and the other Blue Dogs: "We tried your way, were patient, took hits from progressives only to arrive at this point. The Rethugs weren't negotiating in good faith. They don't want health care reform, they want a failure to hang around our necks in 2010 and 2012. Now it's time to try it my way." With the leverage of having sacrificed considerable political capital to allow the Blue Dogs to try a "bipartisan" approach, Obama could then insist on party unity in passing, through reconciliation if necessary, a health reform bill with a public option.
2. Obama can go to the American public and say, "I tried. I took the shots the Rethugs and their insurance industry patrons doled out. I even took hits from my own party to give the Senate time to negotiate a "bipartisan" bill, but the Rethugs put partisan advantage over the interests of the American people. I committed to working toward a new tone in Washington, and will continue to do that. But when the other side is committed only to finding ways to sabotage those efforts, the time eventually must come to say 'Enough, we need to get on with the nation's business.'"
It's possible Obama will redeem himself and his agenda after all. But, as many others have said, he needs to come out fighting before it's too late and show us that Democrats can govern in the public interest.
