If you are following some of the same people that I do on Twitter, you may have noticed some pushback about our contention that Barack Obama is a favorite (and certainly not a lock) to be re-elected. I haven’t come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the favorite. (There are exceptions.) But there are plenty of people who say that the race is a “tossup.”
What I find confounding about this is that the argument we’re making is exceedingly simple. Here it is:
Obama’s ahead in Ohio.
And has been for pretty much the entire campaign. Look at the whole article and you'll see why Nate has Obama at an over 80% favorite to win (but please, please Democrats, Independents and thinking Republicans, let that just be more motivation to get out and vote).
