Thursday, August 4, 2016

Poll Axed (UPDATED)


With all of the appropriate caveats -- three months to go to the election, possible effect of external factors/forces, etc. -- Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog has a daily update on the probability of either Hillary Clinton or neo-fascist narcissist Donald "Rump" Trump winning the election overall, and in state-by-state matchups.  Short story: this past week has been disastrous for the demagogue heading the Rethuglican ticket. Clinton has gone in just days from a 51 - 49 chance of winning to a 77.7 - 22.3 chance of winning (likewise, The Upshot has it as a 78 - 22 chance). Some of the "swing states" are moving more solidly into the Clinton column, with the electoral map showing Clinton with a potential 335 electoral votes, well over the 270 needed to be elected President.

The reliably Rethug-leaning Fox "News" poll yesterday showed Clinton with a 49 -39 lead nationally, which must have the party suits in a state of utter panic. Rump's continued bizarrely aggressive behavior, his attacks on the Khans, his ignorance of nuclear and foreign policy, while popular with his raging low-information base, isn't playing well to the general election voters, i.e. suburban Rethuglicans and "independents," and there are no signs that his behavior is capable of being altered.

UPDATE: Worse news for Rump: a nationwide McClatchy/Marist poll released today has Clinton leading the orange demagogue by 15 points.