SCOTUS Rejects Republican Gerrymander Challenge In Virginia

Bad news for Republican gerrymandering in Virginia:

The Supreme Court on Monday dismissed the challenge to a lower court’s findings that some of Virginia’s legislative districts were racially gerrymandered, saying that House Republicans did not have legal standing to challenge the decision.

The decision could give an advantage to the state’s Democrats. All 140 seats in the legislature are on the ballot this fall, and the GOP holds two-seat majorities in both the House (51 to 49) and the Senate (21 to 19).

Democrats have been hoping that a wave of success in recent Virginia elections will propel them to control of the legislature for the first time since 1995.

The party that controls the General Assembly in 2021 will oversee the next statewide re­districting effort, following next year’s census — potentially cementing an advantage in future elections.  [snip]

It realigns a total of 26 House districts as it remedies the 11 under court order. Six Republican delegates would find themselves in districts with a majority of Democratic voters, according to an analysis by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project. (our emphasis)

The 5-4 decision presented an odd alignment, with Justice Ginsberg writing the majority opinion:

She was joined in an unusual alignment by Justices Clarence Thomas, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Neil M. Gorsuch.

Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. dissented, saying he saw no support “for the proposition that Virginia law bars the House from defending, in its own right, the constitutionality of a districting plan.” He was joined by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justices Stephen G. Breyer and Brett M. Kavanaugh.

Didn't see that one coming.

Each of the gerrymandering cases making their way to the Court is different, but the Virginia case might be less egregious than the others, but is no less significant.  This ruling (based only on legal standing) would also seem to make the outcome of those other state cases less predictable (disclaimer:  we're not lawyers; we only play them on this blog).