Will Texas Turn Blue Sooner Than Expected?

Republicans are running scared in a State that would normally not be in play:

For a state that once elevated the Bush family and was forged into a Republican stronghold by Karl Rove, it is an increasingly uncertain time. Changing demographics and a wave of liberal activism have given new hope to Democrats, who have not won a statewide elective office since 1994 or Texas’s presidential vote since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Recent Republican congressional retirements have stoked party concerns, particularly the surprising Thursday announcement by a rising star, Rep. Will Hurd, that he would not seek reelection in his highly competitive district, which stretches east from El Paso along the Mexican border.

Days earlier, Rep. K. Michael Conaway, a powerful former committee chairman from West Texas, announced that he would not run again, as did Rep. Pete Olson, who narrowly won his seat in 2018. Two years earlier, Olson carried his suburban, Houston-area district by 19 percentage points.

The Dems are definitely treating it like a battleground State:

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has opened four field offices in Texas, more than in any other state, as it targets up to six GOP-held seats. Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), chairman of the committee, called it “ground zero” in a recent interview.

Democrats could face an uphill climb as they work to match Republican turnout statewide. Latinos have long voted at lower rates than whites and African Americans.

Make no mistake:  Republicans will do everything they can (lie, cheat, steal, suppress) to beat back any Democratic surge.  But in 2018 we flipped 2 House seats and more than a dozen State legislative seats, so picking up a few more House seats is doable (Hurd's and Olson's seats especially).  We'll reserve judgement on the potential outcomes of the Senate and presidential races for now.

Regardless, any day Republicans are running scared is a good day.