Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Post- Super Tuesday Narrative Check (UPDATED - Bloomberg Out)


Before last weekend's South Carolina primary, the narrative was of a faltering Joe Biden, by most accounts, barely clinging to life.  Following a ringing endorsement by South Carolina power broker Rep. James Clyburn, Biden outperformed expectations, winning an overwhelming percentage of the crucial African American vote (4-1) across age groups, as well as performing well in swing suburban districts that were the type fueling the blue wave in 2018.  Last night, that momentum carried into the 14 Super Tuesday states, where many of the same demographic characteristics seen in South Carolina voting were replicated, as well as late- deciders mostly breaking for Biden.  So, one lesson from yesterday is "beware of narratives."

That said, here's your new narrative:  For better or worse, this is a two- person race, and that race is far from over.  Obviously, there are more primaries next Tuesday and more following that.  Two- thirds of the delegate total are up for grabs.  We anticipate more culling is possible between now and late March, if not sooner, which may affect the current alignment. (Update: see below)

Here's something else to keep in mind:  When you hear people talking about the "Democratic establishment" circling the wagons, remember that the "establishment" that came to Biden's rescue was hundreds of thousands of African American voters -- the core of the Democratic base.  People vote, not "establishments."  And the people that are voting so far represent not an expanded Democratic electorate of young, previously un- engaged voters, but the over- 45 set (two- thirds of the vote).  In making their decisions, the majority have one thing on their mind that transcends ideological labels:  kicking existential threat Donald "Rump" Trump out of the White House.

So, this should be the only narrative emerging out of the primary season:  There is imperfect and there is evil -- Don't.  Let.  Evil. Win.

UPDATE:

Bloomberg: “I’ve always believed that defeating Donald Trump starts with uniting behind the candidate with the best shot to do it. After yesterday’s vote, it is clear that candidate is my friend and a great American, Joe Biden.”

UPDATE II:  Don't believe any narrative that tells you Democratic enthusiasm is flat --


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