Saturday, May 9, 2020

Behind April's Grim Unemployment Numbers


It comes as no surprise that the hardest hit by the unprecedented surge in unemployment -- at least 14.7 percent in April and climbing -- are women, racial minorities and those without a high school diploma. Labor Department statistics released yesterday indicate that 15.5% of women lost their jobs in April, compared to 13% of men. The breakdown by race/ethnicity was equally stark:
"Hispanics posted the highest unemployment rate, 18.9 percent, in April, compared with 16.7 percent for blacks, 14.5 percent for Asians and 14.2 percent for whites — record highs for all groups except for blacks.

In February, before the shutdown, 4.4 percent of Hispanics, 5.8 percent of blacks, 2.5 percent of Asians and 3.1 percent of whites were unemployed."
The highest unemployment rate of all was among individuals without a high school diploma: 21.2%.

Of course Wall Street is in a self-interested bubble when it comes to these catastrophic figures. Buying into demagogue Donald "COVID Donnie" Trump's reckless what-have-you-got-to lose reopen boosterism, while ignoring the spreading pandemic, stock prices have seemingly stabilized. From Forbes, a cheery prognosis:
"Based on the upward trajectory of stock prices, it seems that savvy investors believe that the U.S. will recover from this dire situation. The rise in stock prices reflects the faith of investors to risk their money—betting on businesses reopening, people going back to work and the management of the virus outbreak."
These "savvy investors" bet with other people's money, and when they screw up, the Federal Government bails them out. If they're "betting" on Trump's management of the outbreak, we have some Lysol for them to inject. Finally, as to if and when we'll recover from the "dire situation" we're in, consider this:
"In a working paper released this week by the University of Chicago’s Becker Friedman Institute for Economics, a trio of economists concluded that '42 percent of recent layoffs will result in permanent job loss.'

That would mean nearly 12 million permanent vacancies, according to the study by a pair of economists from Stanford University and one from the University of Chicago.

Most economists expect a sharp rebound in employment starting in the third quarter. But high unemployment is likely to persist for years. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the unemployment rate at the end of next year to be 9.5 percent.
Jason Furman, who was one of President Obama’s top economic advisers, said he does not expect the jobless rate to dip below 5 percent until 2028." (our emphasis)
It's only a matter of time before those "savvy investors" come looking for another bailout.