Democrat Joe Biden has surged to a dominant 14- point lead in the highly respected New York Times Upshot/ Siena College poll:
The New York Times notes:
...[A]mong a striking cross-section of voters, the distaste for Mr. Trump has deepened as his administration failed to stop a deadly disease that crippled the economy and then as he responded to a wave of racial-justice protests with angry bluster and militaristic threats. The dominant picture that emerges from the poll is of a country ready to reject a president whom a strong majority of voters regard as failing the greatest tests confronting his administration.
That last demographic trend is a measure of Trump's base showing signs of, at long last, eroding:Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by enormous margins with black and Hispanic voters, and women and young people appear on track to choose Mr. Biden by an even wider margin than they favored Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump in 2016. But the former vice president has also drawn even with Mr. Trump among male voters, whites and people in middle age and older — groups that have typically been the backbones of Republican electoral success, including Mr. Trump’s in 2016. (our emphasis)
Extraordinary findings from the new Upshot poll:
Biden +21 with independents
Biden +29 with college educated whites
Biden +39 with college ed white women
Trump only +19 w/non-college whites (Trump won them by 36 in 2016)
Biden +2 among seniors (Trump won them by 9 in 2016)— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) June 24, 2020
The findings generally comport with other major polls, most recently the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll:
Former Vice President Joe Biden doubled his lead over President Trump to 12 points as voters expressed disapproval with the Trump administration's handling of the coronavirus, racial tensions and the economy, according to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill.
Fifty-six percent of likely voters said they would vote for Biden if the election was held today, while 44 percent said they would back Trump, wider than the Democrat's 6-point lead in the same poll last month.
The poll is in line with recent national surveys showing Trump losing ground, including in battleground states that will determine the election, as voters sour on his responses to several crises hitting the country, including most recently the nationwide protests after the police killing of George Floyd.Let's be confident, but not stupidly so. This is not 2016. It's looking more like the 2018 blue wave on steroids; but we need to remember that nothing can be taken for granted, no matter how good the polls look 4 or 5 months out:
NYT/Siena poll (Biden +14), like Fox (Biden +12) & CNN (Biden +14) show a country where majority has made up its mind to reject the incumbent. Issue now is whether Trump can change anyone’s mind or will just try to discredit the election.— David Lauter (@DavidLauter) June 24, 2020
BONUS: One more poll, this one from Duval County (Jacksonville), FL, a county that has gone Republican in every presidential election since 1980:
🚨NEW POLL of Duval County, FL from RVAT/@RABAResearch:
- By a 10 point margin Jacksonville voters do NOT want the GOP convention.
- 61% are concerned about a virus outbreak.
- Biden leads 51%-43% in a county Trump won in 2016:
Full results: https://t.co/NRpRsuvxGP— Republican Voters Against Trump (@RVAT2020) June 22, 2020
2 comments:
Not taken in with poll results. I know that the circumstances are vastly different from 2016 and the Democratic candidate is not Hillary and I know that the divide between the parties is strong enough to draw large numbers. But as we've already seen, polling sites have been eliminated, voting by mail is under attack, and Republicans are doing everything possible to deter people from voting by poll taxes in the form of stringent ID requirements.
We have to take the polling with a grain of salt, let ourselves have hope, but mostly we have to get out the vote like never before.
donnah -- we always caveat the polling and take the numbers with some skepticism. But in the special court election in Wisconsin and the primary in Georgia, where Republican suppression was in full rage, the effect was to PISS OFF voters and who then voted in record numbers. In Kentucky, with fewer than 200 polling places statewide, there also was record turnout due to the use of mail in ballots; the issue of eliminating polling places there was largely due to lack of poll workers, but it's a situation that needs to be fixed there and in other states so people can vote in person if they want to in November.
As we say, let's be confident, but not stupidly so, and your prescription for having hope but working like hell anyway is the right one.
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