Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Biden Lead Grows -- Let's Keep It Growing!


Democrat Joe Biden has surged to a dominant 14- point lead in the highly respected New York Times Upshot/ Siena College poll:



The New York Times notes:
...[A]mong a striking cross-section of voters, the distaste for Mr. Trump has deepened as his administration failed to stop a deadly disease that crippled the economy and then as he responded to a wave of racial-justice protests with angry bluster and militaristic threats. The dominant picture that emerges from the poll is of a country ready to reject a president whom a strong majority of voters regard as failing the greatest tests confronting his administration.
Mr. Biden leads Mr. Trump by enormous margins with black and Hispanic voters, and women and young people appear on track to choose Mr. Biden by an even wider margin than they favored Hillary Clinton over Mr. Trump in 2016. But the former vice president has also drawn even with Mr. Trump among male voters, whites and people in middle age and older — groups that have typically been the backbones of Republican electoral success, including Mr. Trump’s in 2016. (our emphasis)
That last demographic trend is a measure of Trump's base showing signs of, at long last, eroding:


 
The findings generally comport with other major polls, most recently the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll:

Former Vice President Joe Biden doubled his lead over President Trump to 12 points as voters expressed disapproval with the Trump administration's handling of the coronavirus, racial tensions and the economy, according to the latest Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll survey released exclusively to The Hill.
Fifty-six percent of likely voters said they would vote for Biden if the election was held today, while 44 percent said they would back Trump, wider than the Democrat's 6-point lead in the same poll last month.
The poll is in line with recent national surveys showing Trump losing ground, including in battleground states that will determine the election, as voters sour on his responses to several crises hitting the country, including most recently the nationwide protests after the police killing of George Floyd.
Let's be confident, but not stupidly so. This is not 2016.  It's looking more like the 2018 blue wave on steroids;  but we need to remember that nothing can be taken for granted, no matter how good the polls look 4 or 5 months out:



Keep calm and vote.

BONUS:  One more poll, this one from Duval County (Jacksonville), FL, a county that has gone Republican in every presidential election since 1980:


 

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