This is your periodic "be optimistic, but not complacent" polling post.
Another highly respected national poll, the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Poll, continues to track a trend that no amount of phony showmanship and grifting is going to turn around:
With a highly energized and polarized electorate, President Trump faces eroding support on the economy and with key demographic groups just 85 days until the election.
These findings in the latest Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican pollster Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, indicate the President is facing major headwinds for his reelection as the two parties head into their national conventions.
Eight-in-ten (80%) of likely voters indicate that they are extremely likely to vote. Trump voters (80% extremely likely) and Biden voters (82% extremely likely) are at near parity in terms of enthusiasm about voting. In terms of polarization, just seven percent (7%) of voters are undecided on the Presidential ballot and more than eight-in-ten (81%) voters say they have made a definite choice for President, underscoring just how narrow a path the President has to turn things around for his campaign. [snip]
“The latest Battleground Poll shows the President in real trouble, driven in large part by his eroding support on the economic questions. Vice President Joe Biden is leading, tied, or within the margin on every economic issue we tested,” said Mo Elleithee, Executive Director of the Institute for Politics and Public Service. “The one thing that has kept the President competitive in previous polls has been support for his record on the economy. But major defections by middle-class, suburban and independent voters fueled by dissatisfaction with his approach on COVID and the economic recovery, threaten to put this election out of reach unless he fundamentally changes the dynamic of the race.” (our emphasis)Here's the birdseye (click to enlarge):
Here's the right track/ wrong track:
That wrong track number (72%) is political poison, and none is more deserving to drink of it copiously than Trump.
(We look at a variety of state polls, too, and they're in sync with what we see on a national level, i.e., Trump's in deep, deep trouble and the cake is pretty much already baked.)
UPDATE: For those who don't delve into poll tabs --
May not be
decisive in November, but Republicans wondering about Trump's
long-term impact on party might consider this stunning finding in new
Battleground (Lake/Goeas) Poll: among possible 2020 voters who have
turned 18 since 2016, Biden leads 94-6. @MoElleithee
—
Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) August
10, 2020
