British historian Gary Gerstle has some transatlantic perspective on the transformational magnitude of the Biden agenda, specifically the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the Build Back Better "human infrastructure" bill:
It’s exhausting simply to read through the list of the second infrastructural bill’s major provisions: universal preschool, subsidies for child and elder care, a program of school lunches, paid medical leave, expansion of Medicare (and Obamacare and Medicaid), massive investments in a green economy, additional investments in physical infrastructure, a Civilian Climate Corps (modelled on FDR’s storied Civilian Conservation Corps), affordable housing, Native American infrastructure, support for historically black colleges and universities, and an expanded green card program for immigrant workers and their families. We’ve heard a lot about the way in which the filibuster warps American democracy and about the arcane process of “reconciliation” that, in a few instances, allows for a filibuster “workaround.” We’ve heard a lot less about how the Democrats, in difficult political circumstances, have come within two Senate votes of achieving a legislative breakthrough on a scale that rivals FDR’s legendary 100 days.
And despite pundit declarations to the contrary, Democrats’ attempt at breakthrough is not yet dead. It is true that the reconciliation infrastructural bill no longer has a chance of reaching an expenditure level of $4tn. If such a bill passes, it is likely to be in the $1.5-2tn range. The many major initiatives currently contained within it may have to be shrunk by a third. That will disappoint Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and their supporters, who had originally set their eyes on a $6tn package. Yet, history offers a different perspective. The Biden administration might still deliver a package of programs across its first year totaling $5tn: an estimated $2tn for a downsized reconciliation infrastructural bill; $2tn for America’s Rescue Plan already approved; and the $1tn for the bipartisan infrastructure bill that is sure to pass the House at some point. This “shrunken” 2021 package as a whole would still rival (as a percentage of GDP) government expenditures during the most expensive years of the second world war. It would exceed by more than five times the size of Obama’s 2009 economic recovery plan. (our emphasis)
To coin a cliché, failure is not an option for Democrats, on even a less- than- optimal pair of bills. Obviously, failure would mean a missed opportunity of historic proportions to improve the quality of life for most Americans and place America in a more competitive position for the 21st century; and, politically, failure would be the biggest self- inflicted voter suppression action possible. The Narrative would be made reality: voters gave Democrats a chance to help them out, and they blew it.
But, The Narrative notwithstanding, we vividly remember the endless clusterf*ck attending development and passage of the Affordable Care Act early in President Obama's first term, with many of the same Democrats- in- disarray themes running rampant (even with 60 Democratic Senators!). Ultimately, the country got a law that changed the lives of millions of Americans for the better, because Democrats found a way to get it done. Was it Medicare for All? Of course not. But it was a step in the direction of affordable universal health care. The main problem, which Democrats must avoid now, is that getting the ACA passed took so long that it gave Republicans time to scaremonger and smear it ("death panels," "socialized medicine," etc.) in the run up to the disastrous 2010 midterms.
The reality is that changes happen incrementally in a country with a legislature that's over-represented by reactionary Republican states and then layers on that the Jim Crow era filibuster rule. (Naturally, holding the House in 2022 and getting two more Democrats in the Senate would enable them to wave goodbye to Sens. Manchin and Sinema as powerbrokers.)
Getting a package that represents investments on a scale of the New Deal and World War II expenditures would be transformative. Somehow, someway we believe Democrats will get this done.
