"A Surprising Surge" In Jobs; Build Back Better Won't Fuel Inflation

Good economic news on two fronts:  jobs and the non- impact of the Build Back Better bill on inflation. In both cases, the media narrative needs revision:

The government sharply underestimated job gains for most of 2021, including four months this summer in which it missed more job growth than at any other time on record.

In the most recent four months with revisions, June through September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported it underestimated job growth by a cumulative 626,000 jobs — that’s the largest underestimate of any other comparable period, going back to 1979. If those revisions were themselves a jobs report, they’d be an absolute blockbuster.

In an average month before the pandemic, estimates would be revised by a little over 30,000 jobs, or just 0.02 percent of all the jobs in the United States. The recent revisions to the jobs reports have been much larger.

The missing jobs surfaced through revisions to the widely watched non-farm payrolls number that BLS releases each month. The data is considered preliminary until it has been revised twice. The fixes are typically minor, but recent revisions have been big enough to turn a substantial slump into a surprising surge.  (our emphasis)

We wonder what public opinion of the President's handling of the economy would be had the reported jobs numbers not been off so drastically.  Fair or not, inflation, caused primarily by COVID- related disruptions in the supply chain, would still be a significant factor in judging his handling of the economy.  But, as for concerns about the President's infrastructure bills impacting inflation:

Analysts and economists in the nation's top rating agencies say President Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans will not add inflationary pressure to the U.S. economy, according to a report by Reuters.

Both spending bills "should not have any real material impact on inflation," William Foster, a vice president at Moody's Investors Service, told the news service.

"The bills do not add to inflation pressures, as the policies help to lift long-term economic growth via stronger productivity and labor force growth, and thus take the edge off of inflation," Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said, according Reuters, adding that the bills are paid for largely by higher taxes on multinational corporations and wealthy households.

And Charles Seville, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said that both bills "will neither boost nor quell inflation much in the short-run," reports Reuters. 

The Congressional Budget Office's review of the Build Back Better human infrastructure bill is expected by the end of the week, as is a vote by the House of Representatives.  Hopefully the CBO's analysis shows the same results as the rating services, so "concerns" of certain conservaDems can be laid to rest and the bill can be enacted through reconciliation.