Friday, February 25, 2022

Autocratic Thugs Stick Together



It should have been no surprise, as Russia's thug Putin invaded Ukraine, that fellow autocratic thug Xi Jinping would find a way to blame the West for the aggression.  Both dictators view Western style democracy as a mortal enemy, so it's only logical that China would take the position it has taken in the early days of the onslaught:

As Russian missiles flew through the Ukrainian sky Thursday and world leaders decried an invasion spreading across the country, China refused to condemn Russia’s move outright, while appearing to levy blame on the United States and its allies.

Beijing finds itself in a complex position as Russia’s invasion of its neighbor intensifies, needing to balance a close strategic partnership with Moscow with its seemingly contradictory policy of supporting state sovereignty.

A Chinese government official Thursday sidestepped questions over whether it would condemn Russia’s actions or consider it an “invasion.”

Instead, China’s Assistant Foreign Minister Hua Chunying – who repeated staid lines about seeking peace through dialogue and said the situation was “not what we would hope to see” – was quick to point the finger at the US, implying that Washington was a “culprit” for “fanning up flames,” referring to US warnings in recent weeks of an imminent invasion.

“China has taken a responsible attitude and persuaded all parties not to escalate tensions or incite war…Those who follow the US’ lead in fanning up flames and then shifting the blame onto others are truly irresponsible,” she said.  (our emphasis)

The Chinese have been putting off appeals from the U.S. and other Western governments to put pressure on Putin to abandon his plans to invade Ukraine.  In the meantime, they're been quietly advising Putin that the U.S. was "stirring up trouble," and that China wouldn't interfere in Putin's plans:

Over three months, senior Biden administration officials held half a dozen urgent meetings with top Chinese officials in which the Americans presented intelligence showing Russia’s troop buildup around Ukraine and beseeched the Chinese to tell Russia not to invade, according to U.S. officials.

Each time, the Chinese officials, including the foreign minister and the ambassador to the United States, rebuffed the Americans, saying they did not think an invasion was in the works. After one diplomatic exchange in December, U.S. officials got intelligence showing Beijing had shared the information with Moscow, telling the Russians that the United States was trying to sow discord — and that China would not try to impede Russian plans and actions, the officials said. (our emphasis)

The takeaway for the West must be (and likely is) that China isn't a partner in reining Russian ambitions;  it's serving as a Russian ally in refusing to participate in sanctions. That, however, isn't going to help Russia much:

China and Russia’s share of the global economy is far less than that of the Group of Seven countries — which includes the U.S. and Germany. That means China “cannot cover” the impact of the sanctions, U.S. press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters late Thursday in Washington.

China accounted for 17.3% of global GDP in 2020, versus Russia’s 1.7% and the G-7′s 45.8%, according to World Bank data.

If China's policy is to prop up its trading partner Russia and its puny economy, including buying Russian wheat and barley, the West should seriously consider a pro-democracy/anti-autocracy policy in its trade relations with China.  There was already ample reason to pull back on trade with China, given its genocidal war against the Uighurs and its crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong.  Let's see how many goods and services Putin's "gas station with nuclear weapons" can buy from China. 

They've made their bed;  now let them lie in it.

(Photo:  members in good standing of the Autocrats Club)


2 comments:

bt1138 said...

I think this is an easy one for China:

Encourage Russia to self-harm itself while it harms Europe and the US. Also, say a few things to discourage the Russians from blowing up the world. Sit back and enjoy the show.

When the dust has settled, assess the damage and continue forward. This will only strengthen China no matter how it works out.

I think Taiwan is actually safer while Russia bloodies up Europe. Why would China want its actions on Taiwan to take on the taint of the Russian shit-show we see now?

W. Hackwhacker said...

bt1138 -- good points. It's certainly in China's interests to remain as much at arm's length from what's going on in Ukraine as possible (while, of course, sniping and seeing its geopolitical rivals weakened). We'll see if that dynamic changes over time. In the meantime, two state-owned banks in China are, somewhat surprisingly, complying with financial sanctions, restricting financing for purchasing Russian commodities (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/chinese-state-banks-restrict-financing-for-russian-commodities)