"Mixed Signals" About Ukraine Peace Talks?

 

With the Russian assault on Ukraine entering its fourth week as it increasingly targets civilian populations and holds siege to Ukrainian cities, the Zelenskyy government is putting out different messages on the direction of peace talks with the Russian aggressors. The toll on Ukraine's people is enormous as Russia's military focuses on demoralizing the population, as it has been successfully stopped on the battlefield by the Ukrainian defense forces. How much brutality from Russia can be tolerated versus the desire to fight on tempers the messages regarding the talks:

"The mounting death toll in Ukraine has forced President Volodymyr Zelensky to consider concessions to Russia in order to bring an end to the devastating conflict, but the specific elements of any peace deal his government may be discussing with Moscow remain a mystery to Western leaders, said U.S. and European officials.

The secretive rounds of meetings between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators could hold the key to ending the conflict but also carry broader implications for European security depending on how the warring parties settle their differences. If Russian President Vladimir Putin can use military force to compel political change in Ukraine, he could use the same tactic elsewhere, U.S. and European officials fear."

Keeping Ukrainian defense forces' morale up (where Russian military morale is abysmal) as they hold the invaders at bay is important to scaling back Russia's demands under a peace agreement. Zelenskyy's meeting with the Polish, Czech Republic and Slovenia leaders last week offered some idea of his stance, as his negotiators push an optimistic message:

“'[Zelenskyy] showed very little interest in a negotiated settlement and said Ukraine needed to keep fighting until Putin altered his demands,' said a diplomat familiar with the discussions, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive meetings.

At the same time, Zelensky’s top negotiator, Mykhailo Podolyak, has hailed progress in negotiations with Russia and suggested a quick end to the fighting. 'Their position has softened significantly,' Podolyak told PBS this week in reference to Russia. 'We have much confidence that we will have a cease-fire in the coming days.'”  (our emphasis)

As with anything involving Russian "diplomacy", the only constant is their untrustworthiness. With a future ceasefire and partial or complete withdrawal, Russia would probably expect the West to lift most sanctions and return to "normalcy," something that the West should soundly reject in order to have leverage on Russia's future behavior.