Tuesday, July 19, 2022

Declare A National Climate Emergency Now



In the wake of West Virginia Sen. Joe "Fossil Fool" Manchin's bad faith sabotage of the administration's climate and economic agenda, there are "considerations" underway:

President Biden is considering declaring a national climate emergency as soon as this week as he seeks to salvage his environmental agenda in the wake of stalled talks on Capitol Hill, according to three people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private deliberations.

The potential move comes days after Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.) told Democratic leaders that he does not support his party’s efforts to advance a sprawling economic package this month that includes billions of dollars to address global warming. If an emergency is invoked, it could empower the Biden administration in its efforts to reduce carbon emissions and foster cleaner energy.

Two of the individuals with knowledge of the discussions said also they expect the president to announce a slew of additional actions aimed at curbing planet-warming emissions. The exact scope and timing of any announcements remain in flux.

“The president made clear that if the Senate doesn’t act to tackle the climate crisis and strengthen our domestic clean energy industry, he will,” a White House official, who requested anonymity to describe the deliberations, said in a statement late Monday. “We are considering all options and no decision has been made.”

So, stop dithering and make the effing decision!

Here's why time is of the essence:

In 101 months, the United States will have achieved President Biden’s most important climate promise — or it will have fallen short. Right now it is seriously falling short, and for each month that passes, it becomes harder to succeed until at some point — perhaps very soon — it will become virtually impossible. That’s true for the United States, and also true for the planet, as nearly 200 nations strive to tackle climate change with a fast-dwindling timeline for doing so.  [snip]

In many ways, in fact, thinking we have until 2030 to cut emissions to the target dramatically overstates how much time there actually is. As more time elapses, the amount of emissions that need to be cut grows greater in the remaining months. It is like a ship taking on water — if you wait to start bailing, you have to bail ever faster, and if you wait long enough, at some point you no longer have a chance to reach shore.

The Biden goal was already a major reach. So far, the United States has only shaved emissions by a sliver of what the administration intends. Emissions in 2005 were 6.6 billion tons of greenhouse gases, and emissions in 2019 and 2020 were 5.8 and 5.2 billion tons, respectively, according to official national figures.

Thus, current cuts from 2005 levels amount to either 12 or 21 percent, depending on whether you use emissions figures for 2020 (which represent the most recent official numbers). That’s a real issue, because emissions plunged in 2020 because of coronavirus-related shutdowns, but they are bouncing back — and nobody expects that blip to matter much to the long-term trend.   [snip]

The Climate Action Tracker, a tool created by a group of scientists to assess emissions progress, rates the U.S. target as “almost sufficient.” This means that it is consistent, if other major emitter act with similar force, with holding total planetary warming to 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit.

But it is not enough to hold warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit), currently just a few ticks of the thermometer away, the group says.

Two degrees Celsius of warming is severe, and 1.5 degrees is also quite bad — but noticeably less so in some respects. In a 1.5-degree world, scientists say, there would be somewhat more time for small islands to adapt to sea level rise. There would be severe damage to coral reefs but, perhaps, they would still exist in some regions. And the Arctic would still have sea ice in the summer in most or all years — probably avoiding one of the most dangerous feedbacks that could further amplify climate change.

In 101 months, U.S. emissions are certainly going to be lower, but the issue was always the speed of change.

We need bold action now more than ever.  Unfortunately, it appears developing contingency plans -- when your legislative agenda is upended and extremist Republican Supreme Court decisions are predictably turning back the clock to the 19th century -- is not a strong suit of this administration (an understatement if there ever was one).  That needed to change a while ago, but going forward, we can't be fiddling while the Earth burns.

(Photo: Frederick J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images)