Sunday, September 11, 2022

Are We Seeing Ukraine's "Hinge Of Fate" Turning In The War?


Here is the British Defence Ministry's assessment of the state of operations in Ukraine as of yesterday (click to enlarge):

 

We'd post maps of Ukraine's advances recapturing its territory from Russian war criminals, but the Ukrainians are advancing so fast and far that they'd be obsolete.  It's clear that town after town is being liberated in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, and that in the hellhole of Russian- occupied Donbas what few conscripted locals are left are either refusing to fight or dying as "reconnaissance by cannon fire."

The bravery and initiative of Ukraine's well- led armed forces -- fighting as they are for their homeland -- have been the key factors in their battlefield successes.  Aided by modern Western military equipment and intelligence, they've been able to humiliate the invaders and recapture territory lost years ago. The current counteroffensive is proceeding like a case study on how to wage modern warfare.

That hasn't been lost in Russia, where news of the military catastrophes is seeping in, and it's not sitting well with either the far- right nationalists (farther right than thug Putin even) or some municipal officials in St. Petersburg and Moscow, who are bravely calling for Putin's removal and for him to be tried for treason. As the Moscow officials put it:

“The rhetoric that you and your subordinates use has been riddled with intolerance and aggression for a long time, which in the end effectively threw our country back into the Cold War era. Russia has again begun to be feared and hated, we are once again threatening the whole world with nuclear weapons,” the letter read.

“We ask you to relieve yourself of your post due to the fact that your views and your governance model are hopelessly outdated and hinder the development of Russia and its human potential,” the deputies said in closing.

Putin still maintains a strong grip on the security forces and is still popular with a large segment of the Russian population, as far as Western eyes can see.  But these cracks in his authoritarian facade will become greater as the fortunes of Russian forces in Ukraine decline.  That will make him even more dangerous than he already is, and a major motivator for sane actors in Russia to think about taking action against him soon, before he takes everything and everyone down with him.

BONUSMore updated information here.  The Russians are abandoning equipment as they flee.