The seditionist, fascist hard liners that delayed hollow and spineless Rep. Kevin "Qevin" McCarthy's pathetic quest to be Speaker of the House may have extracted crippling concessions from him, but he has another group to worry about. In 2022, 18 Republicans were elected in districts carried by President Biden, making them more vulnerable to a Dem pickup in 2024 than their Republican colleagues. They will be pressured by McCarthy to vote with the extremists on budget, immigration, women's reproductive health issues and more. That will put them at odds with many if not most of their constituents, and Dems are sure to hang a lantern on them for any votes with the Gaetz / Boebert axis.
Last month, Kyle Kondik for "Sabato's Crystal Ball" at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics looked at these 18 swing districts in 2022 (and 5 districts that voted Dem for the House, but for the Malignant Loser). Some margins were extremely close wins for the Republicans, like Arizona's 1st District (by 2.3%) and 6th District (by 1.5%), and some were the result of incompetent Dem Congressional district remapping, notably in New York where 4 districts voted for Biden but flipped their House seats to Republicans (including the notorious "George Santos"). Dems may even pick up a couple in 2024 by challenging Republican gerrymandered districts in court.
The bottom line is that Dems need to go all out to flip those 18 seats, with the help of a radical and unpopular Republican agenda, and hold the 5 that were won in districts voting for the Malignant Loser. Given the landscape and what's about to be an ugly and dysfunctional two years with a Republican House, Dems should be able to defend their turf and make up ground on the Republicans', but it won't happen without organizing and voting.
(photo: Rep. Hakeem Jeffries addresses House after McCarthy elected Speaker/ CNN)
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