There are growing indications of a major Russian offensive in the coming weeks that would attack Ukraine from three sides: north, from Russia's puppet state Belarus, east, from the Donbas frontier, and south, from Crimea. Despite gains made over the last 5 months, Ukrainian forces have been heavily battered by the numerical superiority of the Russian and mercenary Wagner Group forces. A full-on attack on three fronts may reverse those gains and encourage further violence from the Russian regime.
Today's meeting of roughly 50 Ukraine Defense Contact Group defense ministers will focus on the glaring need for heavy armor that the Ukrainians have been urgently requesting for months. Germany will be pressed to, at a minimum, allow fellow NATO allies like Poland and Lithuania to transfer their Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, if not from Germany's own reserves. Its political leaders have been very reluctant to provide the armor needed, ostensibly believing it would provoke Putin into escalating his criminal war further. They've also indicated that they want the U.S. to join them in providing armor, something the Biden Administration has been avoiding due to operational and logistical issues with the M1 Abrams main battle tank.
The allies' mantra has been that they will support Ukraine "for as long as it takes," when the mantra should be extended to "with whatever it takes." (And no, we're not talking about tactical nuclear weapons). Ukraine doesn't have the luxury of time to fight a larger country that has no scruples about murdering the civilian population of Ukraine. At this rate, Putin can afford to feed his freed convicts, Wagner mercenaries, and Russian draftees into battle interminably, while Ukraine bleeds to death for "as long as it takes." At a minimum, Germany should allow allies with Leopard 2 tanks to provide them to Ukraine, regardless of the terms of their sale. Ukraine will be in greater crisis in the coming weeks and months when Russia renews its assault, and dithering will only cost more Ukrainian lives. As Ukrainian President Zelensky told the assembled ministers:
“Terror does not allow for discussion. Time remains a Russian weapon.”
