With Ukraine's long-awaited and NATO-bolstered counteroffensive launched, and with increasing signs of unease among Russia's elites, the Kremlin, and especially war criminal Vladimir Putin, is entering a risky period that may signal the ultimate unraveling of his regime. The poor performance of his military, not to mention the growing criticism from his mercenary army's brutal leader Yevgeny Prigozhin and sporadic attacks by Ukrainian-aligned forces inside Russia, has to be of significant concern to Putin who had promised a short war of territorial expansion against Ukraine. From the Washington Post:
"Signs of the growing tension emerged this month when an influential member of the Russian parliament, Konstantin Zatulin — who is close to the top brass in the Federal Security Service, the Russian intelligence agency — declared at a conference on the future of Ukraine that Russia had so far failed in all of its war aims and that some of them had become 'senseless.'
'What were the aims announced at the beginning of the special military operation?' Zatulin asked, using the Kremlin’s term for the war. “You all remember — denazification, demilitarization, neutrality for Ukraine, and the defense of the residents of Donetsk and Luhansk. On which of these points have we reached results today? Not one.' [snip]
'The mood is very gloomy among the elite,' said Tatyana Stanovaya, the founder of R-Politik, a political analysis firm. “They don’t understand what Putin’s plans are and doubt whether he is adequately dealing with the situation. This has been going on for a long time, but the worry is building up.
[A] well-connected member of Russian diplomatic circles who remains in contact with government officials said the mood turned gloomier last week after Western proposals emerged for long-term security agreements for Ukraine. That would provide Kyiv with guaranteed arms supplies over a multiyear period as an alternative to immediate NATO membership. (our emphasis)
The drone attacks that have targeted elite residential compounds near Moscow have also had a psychological impact on the elites surrounding Putin, bringing a small sense of the war to them at home. Most of all, the level of success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, in particular cutting Crimea off from Russian occupiers, will be a "Tet Offensive" moment for Russia, and why the West must supply Ukraine not only with defensive equipment, but offensive weapons it needs to push Russians out of their country:
'Stanovaya largely agreed but said that while Putin, for now, is immunized by war fever and by the firm belief among most of the Moscow elite that Russia cannot lose because it has nuclear weapons, the course of the conflict could yet have unforeseen consequences for the president’s standing.
'If Russia loses the corridor to Crimea, it will be a very serious blow,' she said. 'Everyone understands how important it is for Putin, and it will mean Putin has again not calculated the situation correctly and again not managed the situation. It will mean a very serious failure.'” (our emphasis)
NATO, and especially the U.S., needs to supply the weapons like the long-range ATACMS tactical missile system and additional M1A1 Abrams main battle tanks that Ukraine needs for that goal. We're already months behind, and further delay will give Putin an edge.
(photo: Moscow apartment building hit by drone May 30. AP)
