Local politics continue to show Democrats performing well, as special elections for State House seats in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania demonstrate:
New Hampshire Democrat Hal Rafter scored a major pickup for his party on Tuesday by flipping a swingy seat in a special election for the state House, a triumph that puts Democrats one seat away from erasing the GOP's majority in the chamber.
Rafter beat Republican Jim Guzofski 56-44 to flip Rockingham County's 1st District, a constituency that favored Donald Trump by a tiny 49.1 to 48.7 margin in 2020. The seat became vacant in April when Republican Rep. Brian Bartlett resigned, citing health issues.
Rafter's win leaves Republicans with a bare 198-197 edge despite a map that they gerrymandered for their own benefit just last year... (our emphasis)
Beating a Republican by 12 points in a gerrymandered district won by the Malignant Loser is a BFD, and should give heart to Democrats statewide.
Democrats will retain their one-vote majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives after voters in Pittsburgh on Tuesday elected former congressional aide Lindsay Powell.
Powell’s victory gives Democrats a 102-101 majority in the House. Republicans have a 28-22 majority in the Senate, creating a divided Legislature that has kept Democrats from passing priorities such as broadened protections for LGBTQ+ people and gun control measures and Republicans from wins on issues including school vouchers.
The divided Legislature has also meant Republican senators have been unable to take to voters proposed constitutional amendments limiting the governor’s power and implementing voter ID...
The seat is considered heavily Democratic, so we appreciate that there were no nasty surprises there.
In fact, Democrats have been over- performing in special elections this year, just as they over- performed in 2022, blunting the "red wave" that produced the House clown circus we have today. From August:
...An analysis from FiveThirtyEight found that in 38 special elections held so far this year, Democrats have outperformed the partisan lean -- or the relative liberal or conservative history -- of the areas where the races were held by an average of 10%, both romping in parts of the country that typically support the party while cutting down on GOP margins in red cities and counties, too...
These elections are taking place at a low point in the polls for the President, amid much speculation about the state of the 2024 race. What the Republican- wired pundits and the pollsters may be missing is the passion of people -- Democrats, Independents, and Republicans -- who see what the nasty Christofascist MAGA Republican Party stands for and are stepping up to defeat it at every level at every opportunity. But remembering that the poll that really counts is on Election Day, let's keep calm and carry on!
