Josh Marshall looks at the devastating surprise attack by Hamas on Israel, and how Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu's policy of "managing" past hostilities between Israel and Hamas in a "tit-for-tat" equilibrium is now moribund. While Israelis will unite strongly in the face of this assault, the repercussions don't bode well for the longer term. His conclusion:
"It’s difficult to see how the Hamas military apparatus, as currently constituted, survives the retaliation for these attacks. That’s not to say these events have a military solution per se. But the military apparatus as opposed to the political and ideological movement is going to be devastated. The issue to keep an eye on for Israel’s political future is that much of Netanyahu’s security strategy and policy was based on the idea that something like this wasn’t possible. It turns out that equilibrium did not provide security.
These events discredit Netanyahu’s policy of ‘management’. I suspect the domestic political impact of that within Israel will be immense. That doesn’t mean that Netanyahu is doomed politically. It certainly doesn’t mean that a peace policy is going to come from it. But a short-term government of national unity is not going to change that reckoning for him, whatever it is. Netanyahu’s calling card within Israeli politics is that he’s the guy watching the shop and making sure something like this doesn’t happen. But it did. It happened on his watch. No short-term national unity government is going to change that." (our emphasis)
However future political dynamics might change, the immediate focus has to be on freeing the civilian hostages, forcing the Hamas attackers out of Israel, and ensuring that their ability to launch massive attacks like this is eliminated.
BONUS: The editorial board at Israel's Haaretz newspaper agrees with Marshall.
