Economy "Will Roar Into The New Year," Feels Like Or Not

 

Okay, this is very good hard data (but the feels, what about the feeeeels?) :

They bought books and coats, fancy dinners and plane tickets. And as 2023 comes to a close, holiday shoppers offered yet another sign that the U.S. economy will roar into the new year.

On Tuesday, fresh retail sales data from Mastercard showed that consumers spent big on gifts, meals and apparel in November and December despite inflation’s lingering bite. Add on strong consumer confidence, and the S&P 500’s approaching an all-time high, and it’s clear that the U.S. economy is in a far better place than just about anyone expected, zapping any hints of a recession and bolstering hope that people will keep opening their wallets in 2024.

“Given the significant uplifts in holiday sales over the past couple of years, and the current pressures on consumer finances, this level of growth can be chalked up as something of a win for consumers,” said Neil Saunders, managing director for retail at GlobalData.

U.S. retail sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24 were up 3.1 percent compared with the same period a year before, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures sales in-store and online across various forms of payment. Online shopping accounted for a large share of the increase, rising 6.3 percent, compared with a 2.2 percent jump for in-person shopping. Apparel sales rose 2.4 percent. Plus, strong demand for in-person dining powered a 7.8 percent jump in restaurant spending.  [snip]

The cheery holiday report was expected, building on a strong summer and third quarter, when the economy grew like gangbusters. Sales on Black Friday set a record of $9.8 billion, up 7.5 percent from the year before. Cyber Monday came in even higher at $12.4 billion, according to Adobe Analytics...(our emphasis)

This can't go unchallenged!  We need to know about the feels (same paper, one day apart)! 

We strongly suspect that the negative "feels" or "vibes" can be accounted for largely by extreme (Republican) partisanship and the effect of onslaughts of media/ social media focus on "bad news" anomalies.  (The inability of Republicans to recognize a good economy under a Democrat needs no further explanation.  And a corollary of the "if it bleeds, it leads" media mentality is "if it shows pain, we gain.")

We're not so foolish as to believe everything everywhere is going swimmingly.  There are still lagging wages in some parts of the economy, inflation is down but not out, and some people's expectations for improving their personal finances over time may be butting up against the reality of a global economy. But, what's happened and is happening over the past three years is pretty remarkable, especially when measured against the predictions of "the experts" and the performance of every other industrialized nation in the world.  That's a story worth telling, and telling, and telling.