Plumbing the shallows of the American polity again.
- Real wages have risen since before the pandemic across the income distribution. In particular, middle-income and lower-income households have seen their real earnings rise especially fast. And in the past 12 months, real wages overall have grown faster than they did in the pre-pandemic expansion.
- Household purchasing power has increased as a result. In 2023, the median American worker can afford the same goods and services as they did in 2019, plus an additional $1,000 to spend or save—because median earnings rose faster than prices.
- The U.S. economy now has over 2 million more jobs than pre-pandemic forecasters expected. Therefore, more and more workers are benefitting from increased purchasing power, thanks to the strong and resilient labor market.
- This pattern of rising purchasing power is particularly American: other advanced economies have generally seen lower, and in many cases negative, real wage growth.
... Joe Biden presides over an economic “soft landing” that almost no one thought could happen, and his approval rating drops to 33 percent—below Jimmy Carter’s in the summer of 1980, when American hostages were being held in Iran, and inflation, at more than 14 percent, was well into a second year of double digits. (Inflation is currently 3.1 percent—and likely will go lower.)
My concern here is not that people aren’t taking Trump’s threat seriously enough (even if they aren’t) or that Biden isn’t getting some of the credit he deserves (even if he isn’t). Rather, the political reactions of American voters seem completely detached from anything that’s happened over the past several years, or even from things that are happening right now. We use vibes to talk about all of this: We’re not in an actual recession, just a “vibecession,” where people feel like it’s a recession. [...]
Even in casual conversations, I find myself flummoxed by people who argue, with much conviction, that America is in fact worse off, even if their own situation is better. When I respond by noting that inflation is not going up, say, or that America is at full employment, or that wages are outpacing prices, or that pay is increasing fastest for the lowest-paid workers, none of it matters. Instead, I get a response that is so common I can now see it coming every time: a head shake, a sigh, and then a comment about how everything is just such a mess.
Some of this showing up in polling can be laid to the fact that Republicans will never acknowledge any successes by Democrats, even if they're personally benefiting. This isn't new; it goes back decades (think collective Republican base amnesia when it comes to who got them Medicare/ Medicaid, Social Security, unemployment compensation, affordable health care, etc., etc.). But the "vibes" bleed over into independent and even a segment of Democratic voters, especially since there's a lag time, as well as Republican- wired corporate media bias, in reporting "good news" when a Democrat is in office. A proximate example being that the "facts" above from the Treasury Department are buried deep in media bowels, if it can be found at all (we Googled and could only find one paywalled source).
Unless "feels" catches up to "facts," we could be in for a most unpleasant time ahead. That's both a fact and a feel.
(Cartoon: Jeff Darcy, Cleveland Plain Dealer)
