Monday, February 5, 2024

QOTD -- Polls

 

"... These days, partisans gravitate to the polls that support their chosen narrative. Trump 'truths' the polls that show him winning. Haley supporters and Biden adherents tout the ones that show Biden winning. I love seeing polls that show Biden up. However, it’s best not to get too worked up over an individual poll, and instead look at the overall average and broader trends. That advice, of course, is hard to adhere to in an election with so much at stake.

The broader trends of the recent polling tell me two things. First, Biden, at minimum, has stabilized, and things may be looking up as people’s views on the economy improve. Second, the polls are consistent with what we have long assumed — this is a very close and winnable race that will come down to less than 100,000 votes across a small handful of states. Our task is the same if the polls show Biden up by 2 or down by 5. We have to do the work of persuading voters, which is why you should immediately go to Vote Save America and sign up to do something other than worry about polls." -- Dan Pfeiffer, The Message Box on Substack, concluding a smart piece providing sound advice to all who obsess about polling 9 months before an election (guilty!).

 

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