Aaron Blake has several takeaways from yesterday's primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, and Ohio. This was of most interest to us:
Yet again, we saw more Republican primary voters voting against Trump than Democratic ones voting against Biden.
About 1 in 5 voters voted against Trump in Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio. And about one-quarter voted against him in Kansas.
By contrast, Biden ceded closer to 1 out of 10 votes in most states holding primaries Tuesday. [snip]
Exit polls there also showed 75 percent of Republican primary voters said they would “definitely” back Trump, with 9 percent “probably” backing him. The rest said they were leaning toward Biden (9 percent) or wouldn’t vote for either (7 percent).
It’s possible that includes many voters who were predisposed to voting against the GOP nominee and showed up to register their dismay, as appears to have happened in Georgia. But Florida’s primary Tuesday suggests there might be something more significant at play.
Nineteen percent of Florida GOP primary voters voted for a candidate not named Trump. (That included 4 percent for home-state Gov. Ron DeSantis, who dropped out of the race two months ago and whom Trump has attacked recently.)
That was actually less of a protest vote than in Illinois and Ohio. But crucially, Florida has closed primaries. That means only registered Republicans could vote. In many of these other states, independent voters and even Democrats could come out to vote against Trump, but that wasn’t the case in Florida.
Florida also began its mandatory early-voting period after Haley dropped out, meaning this appears to be more of a pure protest vote from actual Republicans.
If the trend holds, it appears as if about 1 in 5 GOP primary voters are just going to keep voting against Trump. (our emphasis)
How many self- identified Republican voters actually end up voting against the Malignant Loser in November, or just don't vote, remains to be seen. But what seems clear is that, even with his nomination a certainty, the Malignant Loser manages to repel a significant, sentient segment of the Republican/ Republican- leaning electorate. The Biden campaign, flush with cash, will be targeting these voters, as well as independent "leaners" with his message of protecting and restoring our freedoms: "[T]he freedom to vote and have your vote counted, on the freedom of choice, the freedom to have a fair shot, the freedom from fear.” Add to that the strongest economy in the world (that the media hesitates to, and Republican partisans won't, give him credit for) and falling (yes!) crime rates, and you have much to offer even the distracted voter -- if you can cut through the chatter and firehose of misinformation.
At least some voters seem to be showing us they're being reached.
