"... Biden needs the fighting in Gaza to subside not only for the sake of his reelection campaign but also because his overall Middle East strategy requires it. He wants to begin negotiations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab partners that would lead to recognition of Israel and moves toward Palestinian statehood.
"But for Netanyahu, an end to the fighting would bring a reckoning with the rage among Israelis over his government’s failure to prevent the Oct. 7 attack, and possibly new elections. Right-wing members of his coalition have threatened to bring down his government if he failed to move on Rafah and keep his promise to destroy Hamas — a goal the U.S. government sees as unrealistic, especially in the absence of a plausible day-after plan.
"If Netanyahu is thrown out of power, his trial on corruption charges would resume..." -- E.J. Dionne, Jr., in the Washington Post, laying out the dynamic between Biden's and Netanyahu's political and strategic interests. The international goodwill and support Israel enjoyed at the beginning of its operations against Hamas has been seriously damaged, likely for a generation or more -- all for the sake of the political career (and freedom from jail) of a Trumpy politician and the ultra- extremists whose support he needs. Biden's belated "tough love" is highly unlikely to sway them (Netanyahu has vowed to go it alone in his campaign to level Gaza). The people of Israel are the ones who ultimately must deliver the reckoning, and the sooner the better.
The last time the Israeli electorate tried to send Bibi a message, it took four elections spread over two years, during which he remained in office as a caretaker. He needs not fear that anyone else will be able to get 61. It is convenient to pretend that Ben Gvir is holding the leash, but no one has ever been able to make Netanyahu do anything he didn't want to do.
ReplyDeleteFrank -- we'll just have to wait and see, won't we?
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