This quote comes under the heading of "don't count your chickens before they're hatched", i.e. the only numbers that count are the vote tallies on November 5. With that said, here's a data scientist at Northwestern who many think his system of election prognostication is highly accurate. First the background, from Fortune.com:
"In late 2020 and early 2021, this reporter wrote several stories focusing on the election predictions advanced by Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University. I was intrigued by the highly original methodology Miller deployed in calling the trends, and outcomes, first in the presidential race, then for the two Georgia senatorial contests, where the surprise twin victories gave Democrats control of the upper chamber.
Now, Miller is back in the arena for the first time since offering those highly unconventional forecasts. He’s using a similar system to handicap the supposedly super-tight presidential election that will be decided just 48 days hence. His wildly out-of-the-mainstream call is sure to shock pollsters, pundits and Fortune‘s readers alike. But Miller’s view merits close attention for two basic reasons: First, it’s based on numbers-crunching that’s arguably a lot more scientific than the voter surveys almost always cited to chart the contest’s trajectory, and second, he achieved pinpoint accuracy four years ago. [snip]
Starting with that year’s Kennedy-Nixon race, every presidential race has been decided by 538 electoral votes. “The model’s based on a lot of historical data,” says Miller. It shows that the daily pricing on PredicitIt translates closely into the share of the popular vote favoring each candidate." (our emphasis)
The drum roll, please:
"As of September 16, PredictIt is showing a price of 55 cents for Harris, and 45 cents for Trump, the reverse of the scenario before Biden’s departure. Once again, those odds translate in 55% of the popular vote for the Democrat according to Miller’s model. If the situation persists, Trump faces an absolute rout. 'It would be somewhere between the defeats of Barry Goldwater by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole by Bill Clinton in 1996,' says Miller. 'We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.'” (our emphasis)
Again, before anyone decides that the election's in the bag for VP Harris and chooses sit this election out, don't be a fool. These numbers shifted radically from Trump v. Biden to Trump v. Harris, and they could shift again. Also, the poll predictions / numbers don't vote: YOU DO. The ONLY way to make this prediction a reality is for everyone supporting Kamala Harris and Tim Walz need to get up, register if you haven't already, get uncommitted or apathetic friends and family engaged if only for this election, contribute to the Harris-Walz campaign, and VOTE. When we fight, we win.
No comments:
Post a Comment