The Trump Recession Is Coming

 

The Trump Recession, following the Trump Layoffs and the Trump Tariffs, is coming:

Layoffs announced by U.S.-employers jumped to levels not seen since the last two recessions amid mass federal government job cuts, canceled contracts and fears of trade wars, offering the clearest sign yet of the toll taken on the labor market by the policies of President Donald Trump's administration.

Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday that planned job cuts vaulted 245% to 172,017 last month, the highest level since July 2020, when the economy was in the grips of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was the highest February total since the Great Recession 16 years ago.

 

Government accounted for the bulk of layoffs, with Challenger tracking 62,242 announced job cuts by the federal government from 17 different agencies. The government has laid off about 62,530 workers in the first two months of the year, a whopping 41,311% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

 

"When mass layoffs occur, it often leaves remaining staff feeling uneasy and uncertain," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "The likelihood that many more workers leave voluntarily is high."

 

Tech billionaire Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, is wielding the axe on public spending, an exercise that has resulted in funding freezes, deep spending cuts and the purging of thousands of federal government workers, including scientists and game rangers.  [snip]

 

Challenger said the "DOGE impact" topped reasons for job cuts and was blamed for 63,583 layoffs, linked both directly to the federal workforce and contractors.

 

Downstream effects of DOGE, like loss of funding to private non-profits, accounted for another 894 announced job cuts. Most of the federal layoffs have been in Washington D.C., which has lost 61,795 jobs so far this year compared to only 60 in 2024.

 

Outside government, there were job cuts in retail, technology, services and consumer products industries. The federal government layoffs are not expected to show up in February's employment report, which is scheduled for release on Friday, as the purges happened outside the survey week...

A looming recession wouldn't be surprising to most Americans if they were paying attention, knew a little history, and could connect a few dots, because:

Of the 11 recessions that have occurred in the modern (post-World War II) era, 10 of them have occurred under Republican presidents. Republican presidents often inherit strong economies and leave their successors with significantly weaker economies. For example, President George W. Bush inherited a strong economy from President Bill Clinton, and his presidency ended with the Great Recession. President Donald Trump inherited the longest continuous run of job creation in modern U.S. history from President Barack Obama but became the first president in the modern era to oversee net job losses during his term. There were 2.7 million fewer Americans employed when President Trump left office than at the beginning of his term.  (our emphasis)

That this is all self- inflicted may also not occur to many Americans, especially those in the MAGA bubble who'll be told -- and believe -- that it's all the fault of Biden and the Democrats.  Those irredeemable yahoos will never care that they put a world- historical evil dolt in control of our economy and their well- being;  they'll continue to worship him, validating our maxim "you are who you vote for."  That's the price we're paying for the lack of civic education in our schools;  for a puerile, craven media ecosystem that can't bring itself to tell hard truths (or truth at all);  and for one timid political party that can't get out of its own way and communicate in a consistent and effective manner and another that can, though all it does is tell lies and spread fear and hate.  

 

Since a large slice of American voters seem to base their vote solely on the goddamn price of eggs, maybe it would be a good idea for Democrats and anyone interested in preserving our Republic to start laying the responsibility for the upcoming recession where it belongs.  Can they do that?

(Photo illustration:  Newsweek/Getty Images)