Today is a critical election day in Wisconsin and Florida. Electoral-vote sums up the stakes.
Wisconsin (statewide)
The highest-profile and most important election is for a 10-year term on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Justice Ann Walsh Bradley decided not to run for a fourth term, leaving the Court divided between three liberal justices and three conservatives. The race is nominally nonpartisan, but Democrats are supporting Dane County Judge Susan Crawford and Republicans are supporting former state AG Brad Schimel. Crawford has been endorsed by Barack Obama; Schimel has been endorsed by Donald Trump. Elon Musk has poured over $20 million into the race. That shows you how nonpartisan it really is, but Crawford has also raised plenty of grassroots money.
Wisconsin was the closest swing state last November, with Trump beating Kamala Harris by 0.86%. This is the first time since Inauguration Day that voters statewide in a swing state will get a chance to vote. Virtually everyone is going to interpret the results as a proxy vote on the Musk/Trump administration, not about which judge is better. If Crawford wins in a landslide, as did Janet Protasiewicz in 2023, it will be a black eye for Trump and especially for Musk since his strategy of trying to buy the election will have failed.
Oh, in addition to buying TV ads, Musk is also trying to buy data about potential Republican voters to get them to the polls tomorrow. Any registered Wisconsin voter who signs his petition against activist judges can get $100. In addition, Musk planned to give two lucky signers a $1 million prize at a rally yesterday. Wisconsin AG Josh Kaul (D) said that was an illegal lottery and sued to stop it. Last Friday, Columbia County Circuit Judge Andrew Voight rejected Kaul's suit, but Kaul appealed it. The appeals court turned him down and Musk duly handed out checks for $1 million to people who signed up for his apparently-not-illegal lottery. Expect Musk to use this tactic in every election important to him in the future.
The Wisconsin Supreme Court is expected to get cases on abortion, gerrymandering, unions, and election rules this year or next, making it crucial who wins this seat for the future of Wisconsin...
There are also other local races in Wisconsin that are important and will show whether there's energy and momentum on the Democratic side, which Electoral-vote describes at the link. Electoral-vote continues:
Florida (FL-01 and FL-06)
Now on to Florida, where two House seats are at stake. The House is currently 218R, 213D, with four vacancies—two in deep-blue districts and two in deep-red districts. FL-01 is Matt Gaetz's old seat at the edge of the panhandle, just south of Alabama and politically indistinguishable from it. The district elected Gaetz, after all. In 2024, Gaetz beat Gay Valimont by 22 points, in line with the R+19 PVI. She is running again, this time against the state's CFO Jimmy Patronis. Valimont's full name is Jennifer Gay Valimont. We are slightly surprised, given today's political climate, that she is not running as Jennifer (or Jen or Jenny) Valimont. She was born in 1973, before "gay" was a widely used word.
The district is home to both Naval Air Station Pensacola and Eglin Air Force Base and is one of the most Republican districts in the state. All four counties have voted Republican in presidential elections for 65 years, except for 1968, when all four went for George Wallace. We did mention Alabama, didn't we? Trump got 68% of the vote in the district last year. An upset here would be earthshaking, but if Valimont can keep Patronis' win to single digits, that would also send a message.
The other race is in FL-06, Mike Waltz' safe seat that he foolishly gave up to become NSA, probably for 2-3 months. It is on the Atlantic Coast and includes Daytona Beach. Republicans have carried all six counties in the past four presidential elections. The PVI is only R+14, but Waltz overperformed the fundamentals, beating Democrat James Stockton by 33 points in November. Nevertheless, a recent poll has teacher Josh Weil (D) only 3 points behind state Sen. Randy Fine (R). If Fine wins by only 3 points, that would be an earthquake, given the nature of the district and its past voting pattern. Democrats across the country have poured millions of dollars into Weil's race and he has outspent Fine 10:1. And remember, special elections are low-turnout wonky affairs.
These are important markers for where we are two months into the dystopian Trump/Musk regime. Your vote is your voice, so Wisconsinites and Floridians, please exercise it.
(Illustration: Newsweek/Getty)
Here's hoping Crawford can pull out a win. Schitheels ad's are still running back to back to back on local stations, and his yard signs outnumbers Crawfords 2-1. It promises to be a close race, and if Crawford wins, look for recount after nauseating recount ad infinitum. I've lived here most of my life, and I often wonder what happened here. Trumpism seemed to come on slowly. A yard sign here or there, then permanent signs in front of factories, then every single election. Fraud, fake news, etc. Unfortunately, the Democrats are as rudderless as I feel. I'm just a longhaired overfed retired teamster truck driver and veteran. Not only do the Democrats look at me like I'm the enemy, I'm dying on the same hill they are. and it's a big hill. Trans right's, LGTBQXYZ, everyone but me. My own union overwhelmingly supports Trump from the president of the international, right down to the majority of the rank and file. today's the first of the month, and I have to keep my fingers crossed, that my SS check is there. Interesting times aren't they?
ReplyDeleteSeafury -- well, we value you, and we're Democrats! O'Brien is a chump and an asshole and the majority of the Teamsters rank and file, like too many of their working class brothers and sisters, vote against their economic self interests all the time. The rest of us just keep our heads down and plug away to try to make things better for everyone whether they appreciate it or not. Hang in there!
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