Pollster G. Elliott Morris on the potential for a "blue wave" in 2026 if historical trends hold:
"....generally speaking, the lower a president's approval rating is in May of the year before a midterm, the more House seats their party tends to lose in that election. If we look back at recent history, a significantly negative approval rating has often preceded substantial midterm losses. For instance, in the lead-up to the 2018 midterms during Trump's first term, his approval was also in negative territory (hovering between -10 and -12 points by May 2017 in various averages), and the Republican party lost 43 House seats, flipping control to the Democrats.
A net approval of -8 is indeed on the lower end of the historical spectrum, putting President Trump's party in a potentially precarious position for 2026 — equal to or worse than their position in 2018. While every election cycle is unique, and many other factors will come into play, a net approval of -8 points this far out suggests that the conditions could be pointing towards significant losses for the president's party, potentially echoing the 'blue wave' of his first cycle." (our emphasis)
As always, the reminder that polls aren't votes, and we're 18 months away from the 2026 mid-terms.
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