Iran Elects A New President

 

Acknowledging that descriptors can be relative, it appears a more "moderate" reformist candidate has just been elected Iran's new president:

Aided by record low turnout and deep frustration with Iran’s ruling class, little known reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian defeated prominent ultraconservative Saeed Jalili to become the next president of Iran.

Pezeshkian, who advocates moderate policies at home and limited engagement with the West, won after the vote went to a runoff Friday, according to results announced by Iranian state media Saturday morning. Turnout on Friday stood at 50 percent, just slightly higher than last week’s historic low of 40 percent.

Pezeshkian, who previously had only limited exposure as a national political figure was the sole reformist approved to run after snap elections were called following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a May helicopter crash. Pezeshkian netted 16.3 million votes, according to the country’s election headquarters, almost 3 million more than Jalili, his nearest rival, who trailed behind with about 13.5 million.

The victory for Pezeshkian delivers a significant blow to Iran’s ultraconservative party at a critical time for the country as it faces heightened regional tensions and a standoff with the West over its nuclear program.

This comes as a Biden Administration- brokered ceasefire/ hostage release deal between Iran client Hamas and Israel seems to be inching closer to fruition.  If indeed Pezeshkian wants engagement with the West, pressuring Hamas and their other client terrorists, Hezbollah, to stand down would seem the right signal to send.  In doing so, he would still face perhaps insurmountable resistance from the ultra- conservative elements in the regime, including the powerful Revolutionary Guards, which controls the ballistic missile program (!) and is heavily represented throughout the regime and in its terrorist- supporting networks abroad:

Pezeshkian’s victory shows he was able to expand his base of support, pulling from both the reformist and conservative ranks, said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an Iran analyst and dean at Missouri University of Science and Technology.

But once in office, Iran’s conservatives might frustrate the plans Pezeshkian set out during his campaign.

“The conservatives will try to create obstacles from day one,” Boroujerdi said. “He won’t have much of a honeymoon. … They will apply the brakes to whatever Pezeshkian will try to do.”

But, if there's an advantage Pezeshkian has, it's that Iran's social and economic crises are demanding action:

At home, many Iranians are still reeling from the brutal government crackdown on nationwide protests that erupted in 2022, following the death of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman, in the custody of the widely reviled “morality police.”

In the uprising’s aftermath, the regime doubled down, sentencing some protesters to death and increasing penalties for women who disobey its strict dress codes.

Amid simmering social unrest and a deepening economic crisis, the presidential campaign featured some rare acknowledgment of the challenges faced by the country’s ruling class — a sign, analysts say, of how serious those challenges have become...

Challenges that can be met with reform, or with more brutal repression.  

(Photo:  President- elect Pezeshkian casts his ballot)

Change in Iran?

 Via AP:

Wild celebrations broke out on Tehran streets that were battlefields four years ago as reformist-backed Hasan Rowhani capped a stunning surge to claim Iran’s presidency on Saturday, throwing open the political order after relentless crackdowns by hard-liners to consolidate and safeguard their grip on power.   [snip]

In his first statement after the results were announced, Rowhani said that “a new opportunity has been created … for those who truly respect democracy, interaction and free dialogue.”

But in Iran, even landslides at the ballot box do not equate to policymaking influence.  All key decisions — including nuclear efforts, defense and foreign affairs — remain solidly in the hands of the ruling clerics and their powerful protectors, the Revolutionary Guard. What Rowhani’s victory does is reopen space for moderate and liberal voices that have been largely muzzled in reprisal for massive protests and clashes in 2009 over claims the vote was rigged to deny reformists the presidency.

Rowhani’s supporters also viewed the election as a rebuke of uncompromising policies that have left the Islamic Republic increasingly isolated and under biting sanctions from the West over Tehran’s nuclear program. The 64-year-old Rowhani is hardly a radical — having served in governments and in the highly sensitive role of nuclear negotiator — but he has taken a strong stance against the combative international policies of outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and others.

“I’ve never been an extremist,” Rowhani said on state TV shortly after the official results were announced. “I support moderation.”

“I thank God that once again rationality and moderation has shined on Iran,” he continued. “This is the victory of wisdom, a victory of moderation and a victory of commitment over extremism.”

The words, of course, are encouraging. What remains to be seen is if Rowhani has the room to maneuver and effect internal and external changes that are sorely needed (future of nuclear program, posture towards Israel, support for Assad and Hezbollah, etc.).

"I Am Neda"

Among many other casualties, the demonstrations throughout Iran this weekend in defiance of the Iranian thugocracy resulted in the death of a brave Iranian woman, 16 year-old Neda Soltani. That's right, 16 years old. It's almost impossible to imagine a regime that would condone killing a 16 year-old girl involved in peaceful demonstrations. The brutal Basiji paramilitaries were responsible for her killing.

Over the past couple of days, demonstrators carrying "I Am Neda" signs are proliferating. This may not be the end of the Ahmadiddledoo/Khameni tyranny, but it's the beginning of the end. The linked article notes that religious clerics in the holy city of Qom are reported to be working to replace Khameni as "Supreme Leader."

A Blind Squirrel Occasionally Finds A Nut, cont'd.

We were somewhat surprised to hear George "Quill Pen" Will on ABC's "This Week" gabfest stating that the Rethuglican criticism of President Obama's measured response to the Iranian regime's crackdown on opponents to be "foolish criticism."

As we've noted, the mullahs would like nothing more than overt U.S. support for the demonstrators to justify a harsher crackdown and to delegitimatize the demonstrators as "American lackeys." As Will said, the people demonstrating know full well what our attitude is toward Ahmadiddledoo and Co., even if the Rethugs don't.

Events In Iran

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khameni, is agreeing to have an investigation into their clearly fraudulent elections which were "won" by Mahmoud Ahmadiddledoo, who is widely unpopular in Iran. It's not clear whether this is an attempt to whitewash the election, or if it's a serious inquiry. Earlier today, hundreds of thousands of protesters spilled into the streets in Tehran, and there were reports of demonstrations and rioting in other major cities such as Shiraz in protest of the electon results.

There's some speculation that President Obama's Cairo speech, and the subsequent election of a pro-U.S. government in Lebanon, may have frightened the ruling mullahs into rigging the election for Ahmadiddledoo, for fear of having a perceived reformer like Mir Hossein Moussavi leading Iran. Now, their action may lead to increasing violence and end up diluting their power in the long run.