Inflation Cools To Lowest Levels Since February 2021; "Feels" Fools Don't Care

 

The last inflation report before the election confirms that the Biden- Harris Administration got inflation under control:

Inflation has come full circle for the Biden administration.

Consumer price growth slowed to its lowest pace since February 2021 — the first month the president took office, the Labor Department said Thursday in its final inflation report before Election Day.

The data, while a bit hotter than expected, points to an economy seeing cooler inflation even as the job market remains sturdy and interest rates ease.

The twelve-month Consumer Price Index measured 2.4% in September, slightly higher than expectations of 2.3% but down from 2.5% in August. On a month-to-month basis, the index climbed 0.2%, just above expectations for 0.1%...

Inflation under control.  Job market "sturdy."  Interest rates easing (and more easing to come).  Is the reality of the strong economy sinking into the craniums of American voters?  Surely you jest:

The majority of them believe it’s “on the wrong track” or “weak,” according to a September poll of registered voters conducted by the Harvard Center for American Political Studies and the Harris Poll. [snip]

People who have more negative views of the economy are more likely to base their rating on their personal experiences or what they’re hearing from others, which tends to be more negative as well, Joanne Hsu, the director of the university’s Surveys of Consumers, told CNN, based on a recent poll her team fielded. Whereas if you get most of your information about the economy from a news outlet, there’s a higher likelihood you’ll have a more optimistic view of the economy because you’re more likely to come across elements that paint it in a more favorable light.

But the average American does not wait for news to come out to form an opinion on how the economy is functioning, she said. “They’re really relying more on their observations of the world around them.” (our emphasis)

Better to get your vibes from your neighbor Chester and your Facebook friend than a "news outlet!"  So, the "feels" fools are still impervious to "elements that paint [the economy] in a more favorable light" (i.e., "facts").  Wait until they elect the Very Stable Genius Buffoon and his tariffs kick in while the top 5% get billions in tax cuts!  Not to mention the Buffoon's "mass deportation" of migrants that help sustain our economic growth!  Then how will those "feels" be?

Good News On Inflation, Jobs, And 401(k)s

 

With apologies for the Axios "fast food" format, we shouldn't ignore yesterday's good news on inflation and jobs, even though *others* will:

The big picture: Consumer prices are no longer rising at a rapid pace — in some cases, costs are falling — a milestone for the economy that has been plagued by high inflation for years.

• The unemployment rate is edging up, but still at an historically low level.
• Those looking at their 401(k)s are probably pleased in recent days: the stock market is near a record high.

Why it matters: This is the economic sweet spot that Federal Reserve officials have been hoping for.

• From the standpoint of the Biden administration, the economy is performing just as they would have hoped.
• "The story for the last two years has been just how exceptional the performance of the U.S. economy has been, and that's not a secret," Fed chair Jerome Powell told Congress this week.

Catch up quick: The Consumer Price Index print yesterday was as good as an economic report can get.

• In June, the Consumer Price Index fell (yes, deflation!) for the first time since 2020.
• Some goods that have been weighing on consumer budgets in recent years — gas, some grocery items and cars — got cheaper.

This is more "real" versus "vibe" economic data, but the media's directing its feral attention elsewhere and, anyway, good news is no news in our "if it bleeds it leads" media environment.  So let's take it upon ourselves to keep actively sharing what is "real" within our own social networks. 

More Indications That "Inflation Has Basically Been Defeated" (UPDATED)

 

We have a strong economy.  Pass it on:

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady on Wednesday, as officials hold out for more confidence that their fight against inflation is still on track.

The move, which was widely expected, came on the heels of fresh data showing inflation cooled in May. After a bumpy start to the year, the report brought a welcome dose of encouragement, beating analysts’ expectations and lifting financial markets. And even though Fed officials still don’t know exactly when they’ll cut interest rates for the first time in years, they seem to be getting closer...

As others have noted (see Tweets below), job growth has exceeded expectations while inflation has come in below expectations (i.e., "inflation has basically been defeated").

We're certain this will be the lead story in every media outlet today =wink=.

UPDATE:  But wait, there's more --

A measure of wholesale prices unexpectedly decreased in May, adding another piece of evidence that inflation is pulling back.

The producer price index, a gauge of prices that producers get for their goods and services in the open market, declined 0.2% for the month, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thusday. That reversed a 0.5% increase in April and compared to the Dow Jones estimate for a 0.1% increase.

Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI was unchanged, compared to expectations for a 0.3% increase.

The release comes a day after the BLS reported that the consumer price index, a widely watched gauge of inflation that measures what consumers actually pay for goods and services, was unchanged on the month.

The "real" is starting to "feel" a lot better, wethinks.