Cease Fire: One Day and Holding

A cease fire between Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists is holding, with only minor incidents being reported.  Ukrainian President Poroshenko and Russian leader Putin are in discussions to strengthen the cease fire after months of internal strife.  Separatists supported by Russian forces were moving on Mariupol, a key port on the Sea of Azov, apparently hoping to open a land link with Crimea, which they seized earlier this summer.

We're not optimistic about the cease fire holding, given the stakes on both sides.  Putin has put his domestic prestige on the line, and Poroshenko will demand the withdrawal of Russian forces and the disarming of the separatists.  Yesterday's incident at the Estonian-Russian border, where an Estonian border official was abducted by Russian security officials, would indicate that Putin will continue to try to intimidate his neighbors in attempt to neutralize them.