Let's start the day off with some encouraging news, and some encouraging speculation.
First from The Monkey Cage:
Lots of commentary has accompanied the “Trump Bump,” as the alleged bump in Donald Trump’s poll numbers has been called. While most polls had Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, up by a solid 10-point margin as late as March, this lead seemed to have shrunk. Huffington Post’s Pollster counts about 100 head-to-head polls for Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump since the start of 2016. Their model estimates that Clinton’s lead has shrunk to 4 points.
Is this shift real? We do not think so. Based on data we have collected using Pollfish, we see the opposite: a slow and steady rise for the eventual Democratic nominee.Pre- June 7 jibber jabber on California: "Polls tightening in California!" "Clinton struggling to salvage California!" "Too close to call!"
June 7: Clinton 56%; Sanders 43%.
=crickets=
Polling and news organizations have agendas and axes to grind, in addition to questionable modeling, so all head- to- head polls should come with a caveat emptor. But analysis of polling averages and focusing on party choice, as is being done by The Monkey Cage, that's a different and probably better way to look at the race right now.
Speaking of bumps, know what would totally energize and continue the process of unifying the Democratic Party? What Harry Reid said (allegedly!):
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) believes Elizabeth Warren should be the running mate of presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, according to four Senate sources familiar with Reid’s thinking.
Reid had initially been skeptical of the chatter around Warren, publicly warning that Democrats couldn’t afford to lose the seat the Massachusetts senator currently occupies. But The Boston Globe reported last week that he tasked attorney Marc Elias with studying how manageable the loss would be. Elias is, not coincidentally, the general counsel for Clinton’s campaign.
As Reid has examined the issue in recent weeks, he has grown confident the Democrats could hold onto Warren’s Senate seat and retake the upper chamber, according to sources. He also believes they could even put the House in play for Democrats, the sources said.Now that would be a real bump! Be still, our hearts!
BONUS: Here's what Sen. Warren will be doing on the campaign trail, regardless of who's on the ticket with Hillary.
BONUS II: Charles Pierce begs to differ on Warren as VP.
