Yesterday's Primaries In Florida And Arizona

Yesterday's primaries in Florida and Arizona produced some interesting outcomes. Here's Five Thirty Eight's take on two of the biggest results:

o The big headline of the night: Progressive Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, notched a surprise win in the Democratic primary for Florida governor, 34 percent to 31 percent, over moderate former Rep. Gwen Graham. It was less of a surprise, but the more ideologically “pure” candidate won on the Republican side too, with Rep. Ron DeSantis defeating Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (who was practically the state GOP’s anointed successor) 57 percent to 37 percent. It sets up a rollicking and unpredictable general election, in which Gillum will surely be hit for an FBI investigation into his mayoral administration and DeSantis’s bear hugs of Trump will be played on repeat for swing voters during commercial breaks. 

o Rep. Martha McSally defeated former state Sen. Kelli Ward and former Sheriff Joe Arpaio to win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona. The vote is still being tallied as I’m writing, but McSally is right around 50 percent and it looks like she’ll win by pretty much exactly the margin people expected. The once Trump-skeptical McSally did an impressive job appealing to the president’s wing of the party against two immigration hardliners who were arguably Trump before Trump. Establishment Republicans are also relieved, because McSally was by far their strongest candidate against Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema.

Florida is a closed primary (you have to be registered either Democrat or Republican to vote), while Arizona is an open primary (any registered voter can vote).  In the Florida gubernatorial race, the Democratic candidates got 1,508,984 votes against 1,618,013 votes for the Republicans. Clearly in that race, as well as the Senate race pitting incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson against grifty Gov. Rick "Batboy" Scott, Democrats will need to keep their voters and get a significant turnout from independents to get across the finish line with wins.

In the Arizona Senate race, the Democratic votes were 361,909 against 456,467 for the Republicans. The Democratic race was not hotly contested, while the Republican race was, which may have affected turnout.  It's also unclear how independents turned out and how they voted. But, regardless, Democrats will have their work cut out for them to get a Democrat elected to fill retiring Sen. Jeff Flake's Republican seat.

Lots of work to be done in both of these critical states before November!

BONUS:  Trump- idolizing Republican candidate for Florida governor, Rick DeSantis is already blowing the dog whistle at his African- American opponent, Andrew Gillum.