Historic Blue Tsunami: Democrats Take 40th House Seat From Republicans

It's official:

On Thursday afternoon, a month after the midterm elections, Republican Rep. David Valadao finally conceded in his race against Democrat TJ Cox. 

With California’s 21st congressional district going blue, the Democrats have officially picked up 40 seats in this midterm cycle and won seven Republican-held seats in California—all of which voted for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. (our emphasis)

538's Harry Enten puts it into its historical context:

The final votes are being counted from the 2018 election. They confirm that the Democrats crushed Republicans.  [snip] 

As has oft been repeated, this is the largest Democratic House gain since 1974. It's a larger gain than Democrats had in the wave elections of both 1982 and 2006. 

We can go back even further and see how unusual it is that Democrats picked up this many seats. If you go back all the way to first election of the post-World War II era (1946), there have only been three elections in which Democrats net gained more seats than they did in 2018. Put another way, this was the fourth best performance for Democrats in the 37 general House elections since President Donald Trump was born. 

Another way to judge an election is by how many votes each side wins. Democrats' position in the national House popular vote is now reaching historical proportions. 

According to the vote count from the Cook Political Report, Democrats now have a 8.6 point lead. For a party that started in the minority, this is incredibly strong. Minority parties often struggle because even an unpopular majority party is protected partially by the fact that incumbents receive a boost compared to other candidates. 

This year's 8.6 point House popular vote win for the Democrats is the greatest on record for a minority party heading into an election. This dates all the way back to 1942, when the Clerk of the House started listing the House popular vote in its after-election statistics document. That is, the Democratic performance this year was better than the minority party's in the previous 38 elections. 

The Democrats won by a wider margin this year than Democrats did in 2006 or Republicans did in 1994 or 2010. They beat the previous record of 8.5 points Republicans won by in 1946. 

It wasn't a blue wave, it was a blue tsunami.

Come on, Democrats!  Toot your horns!!

Monday Reading

As always, please go to the links for the full articles/ op eds.

The Special Counsel's investigation seems to be uncovering a lot of, um, liars around pathological liar Donald "Rump" Trump.  Who knew?

One lied about his knowledge of Russian-hacked emails [George Papadopoulos], another about a Russian real estate deal [Michael Cohen], a third about dialogue over sanctions with a Russian ambassador [Michael Flynn]. 

A pattern of deception by advisers to President Donald Trump, aimed at covering up Russia-related contacts during the 2016 campaign and transition period, has unraveled bit by bit in criminal cases brought by special counsel Robert Mueller. 

The lies to the FBI and to Congress, including by Trump’s former fixer and his national security adviser, have raised new questions about Trump’s connections to Russia, revealed key details about the special counsel’s findings and painted a portrait of aides eager to protect the president and the administration by concealing communications they presumably recognized as problematic.

More and more they're resembling an incompetent mob family.

There's almost no better example of the complete submission of the Republican/ Stupid Party to Rump than in its global climate change denialism:

Sen.-elect Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee said falsely in the lead-up to her campaign that the Earth has started to cool, and argued inaccurately that scientists have not reached a consensus on climate change. 

In Florida, which has been pummeled by hurricanes, Sen.-elect Rick Scott has acknowledged rising and warmer seas could be harmful to his state but won’t attribute it to human activity. 

And Sen. John Neely Kennedy, who is expected to announce Monday whether he will run for Louisiana governor, told reporters last week that while the Earth may be getting hotter, “I’ve seen many persuasive arguments that it’s just a continuation of the warming up from the Little Ice Age.”

Voters in Tennessee and Florida had a chance in November to cauterize themselves from denialist Republicans, but they chose to, literally, reap the whirlwind.  Voters still have a chance to retire that homespun goober in Louisiana. Of course, their ignorant hero was alone at the G20 Summit this weekend in failing to support the Paris Climate Accords in a joint communique signed by 19 other nations.  But, as Steve M. points out, denialism long preceded the arrival of Rump. Through their malicious inaction today, this Rump- led mob of sociopaths and morons will be responsible for the misery and deaths of millions of people around the world over the coming decades.

Don't expect any self- examination from this Trump cult, either:

With a brutal finality, the extent of the Republicans’ collapse in the House came into focus last week as more races slipped away from them and their losses neared 40 seats. 

Yet nearly a month after the election, there has been little self-examination among Republicans about why a midterm that had seemed at least competitive became a rout.

They've forever hitched their wagon to Trump. May their demise be rapid and complete.

For the civilized world that isn't science- phobic, some interesting news:

The universe shines with the light of some billion trillion stars. A team of astrophysicists recently used a satellite to sum up all these stars' light, measured in particles called photons. Let there be numbers: By their estimate, over the history of the universe, stars have emitted 4 times 10-to-the-84th-power photons into the visible universe (that’s a 4 followed by 84 zeros). 

But their work was more than counting sunbeams. The technique allowed astrophysicists to construct a history of star formation: Star births peaked about 3 billion years after the big bang, as members of the international Fermi-LAT Collaboration reported Thursday in the journal Science. This spurt has slowed dramatically in the 10-plus billion years since.

"4 followed by 84 zeros."

Finally, we recommend you taking time to check out Infidel 753's link round- up to various items of interest he discovered searching the internet.  We always get a new appreciation about something from a visit (like, for instance, the dystopian capitalism of self- checkouts).

Your Big Blue Wave Update

Wave, or tsunami?

...[T]he Democratic lead in the U.S. House popular vote is up to 8.1%, and it may yet inch higher. For comparison purposes, note that in 2010 – which was widely seen as a GOP “wave” cycle – Republicans won the U.S. House popular vote by 6.6%. In 1994, which was seen as a Republican “revolution,” the GOP won the U.S. House popular vote by 7.1%.

270towin.com, with one House race (CA-21) still uncalled:

Overall, Democrats have won 234 seats, Republicans 200. That's a net gain of 39 for Democrats.  

Reminder to Mississippians:  the Senate special election runoff is tomorrow, Tuesday, November 27. Defeating racist dimbulb Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith and replacing her with Democrat Mike Espy would give Democrats their 48th seat in the Senate, and their third flip of a Republican seat.  Democrats haven't won a Senate seat there since 1989, so it's a rough slog -- but if you don't show up and vote, it's on you!

Voting Rights Include Fair And Proportional Representation

This adds to the case that the 2018 mid- terms represented a big blue wave at the Congressional level:

Democrats received more than 8 million more votes than Republicans during the 2018 midterms, according to NBC pic.twitter.com/IHpbcM73dR

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 20, 2018

Steve Benen notes:

...[T]he Democratic lead in the U.S. House popular vote now stands at 7.8%, up from 7.7% yesterday, and it may yet inch higher. For comparison purposes, note that in 2010 – which was widely seen as a GOP “wave” cycle – Republicans won the U.S. House popular vote by 6.6%. In 1994, which was seen as a Republican “revolution,” the GOP won the U.S. House popular vote by 7.1%.

Unfortunately, decades of Republican gerrymandering in State legislative districts has led to results like this (click on image to enlarge):

The gain of over 300 State legislative seats was a great beginning for Democrats this year -- but only just that, a beginning.  Tellingly, in Michigan and several other states voters supported initiatives to end gerrymandering through independent redistricting commissions. 

At the Federal level, the courts are taking up cases to end gerrymandering of Congressional districts. The Brennan Center for Justice provides a snapshot of those efforts here.

Voting rights -- including the rights of voters to be fairly and proportionally represented -- will be an ongoing battle as the Republican Party seeks to maintain reactionary (white) power in an increasingly hostile political and demographic environment.  In the past, Democrats have been accused of being asleep at the switch in these partisan redistricting battles.  But with the 2020 Census looming and new Democratic control of a number of key Statehouses (including key Secretary of State wins), we have an opportunity to begin to level the playing field, and we know what we need to do and how important it is that we do it.

BONUS:  Good question --

About 60 million people turned out to vote for Democrats for the House this year. That is a **crazy** number. (Republicans got 45m votes in the 2010 wave.)

And this was sort of missed. Why so many stories about Trump voters in truck stops and not so many about "the resistance"?

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 18, 2018

BONUS II:  Here's your answer. Sic transit gloria, America.

Orange County Is Solid Blue

Former Republican stronghold Orange County, California, with six Congressional Districts (five more than the States of Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming, individually) is now all blue:



(Image:  screenshot via Rachel Bitecofer)

New England Is Solid Blue

With Democrat Jared Golden's win in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, New England now has no Republican representatives in the House:

Seriously, look at this House map -- Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island are entirely blue.

Plus NYC and its surroundings (all except two on Long Island), most of eastern PA (except one), most of New Jersey (except one), and Delaware too. pic.twitter.com/4YaDe63HZ3

— Kevin M. Kruse (@KevinMKruse) November 15, 2018

The only Republican in Congress from New England is short- timer Maine Sen. Susan "I Believe Brett Kavanaugh" Collins.

We're waiting for the final counts out West;  it will have a distinctly blue shade as well.

"Our Democracy Is Still Very Much In Danger"

Would- be president for life Donald "Rump" Trump and his band of villains in Georgia and Florida have been trying to short- circuit the counting (and re- counting) of ballots since election day.  As more ballots (absentee, overseas, military, provisional) are counted, margins for the Republican vote suppressors in those states have been going down.  With Georgia Republican and voter purger extraordinaire Brian Kemp desperate to stay above the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff with Democrat Stacy Abrams, odious fraudster Gov. Rick "Batboy" Scott throwing around lies about fraud while a recount is underway, and future one- term Republican Senator from Colorado Cory Gardner echoing Scott's claims that Dems were "stealing" the election, there's a coordinated Republican effort to disenfranchise voters and to try to de- legitimatize election results when Republicans are in danger of losing.  Existential threat to democracy Rump is all in on this strategy, of course.

Paul Krugman discusses how Republicans are being prepared for distrusting any election results that result in Republican losses (not that it takes much preparation):

The attempt by Trump and his party to shut down the legally mandated Florida recount with claims, based on no evidence, of large-scale voting fraud fits right into this partisan epistemology. Do Republicans really believe that there were vast numbers of fraudulent or forged ballots? Even asking that question is a category error. They don’t “really believe” anything, except that they should get what they want. Any vote count that might favor a Democrat is bad for them; therefore it’s fraudulent, no evidence needed. 

The same worldview explains Republicans’ addiction to conspiracy theories. After all, if people keep insisting on the truth of something that hurts their party, it can’t be out of respect for the facts — because in their world, there are no neutral facts. 

So the people making inconvenient assertions must be in the pay of sinister forces. In Arizona, Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won a Senate seat on the strength of late-counted ballots. Did you know that the state G.O.P. has filed a freedom of information request for information on interactions between election officials and, you guessed it, George Soros? [snip] 

What all of this means is that what’s going on in America right now isn’t politics as usual. It’s much more existential than that. You have to be truly delusional to see the Republicans’ response to their party’s midterm setback as anything but an attempted power grab by a would-be authoritarian movement, which rejects any opposition or even criticism as illegitimate. Our democracy is still very much in danger.

Paul Campos at LGM sees this as a dangerous prelude to the 2020 election (should Rump be around to run), and sketches how the attempts to de-legitimatize election results in close races this year may play out when 2020 rolls around:

(1) He loses a close election, like 2016 except the other way.  If that happens, I think there’s a good chance that he won’t acknowledge the legitimacy of the result, and he’ll do everything he can, legally and extra-legally, to stay in office. 

(2) He loses, or is obviously going to lose, by a big margin.  In this scenario, I can see things getting really crazy in the weeks running up to November 2020.  I can imagine him trying to call the whole thing off, on the grounds of some spurious national emergency, or announcing ahead of time that the election results were going to be illegitimate because of “massive voter fraud” (i.e., similar to his reaction to losing a close election, except anticipating the result and trying to delegitimize it ahead of time). 

(3) Something basically unimaginable right now (I don’t trust the show runners at all at this point). 

Ultimately I don’t think Trump is going to go gentle into that good night.  And it’s probably a good idea to start anticipating that possibility.  

Conservative Jennifer Rubin concurs:

President Trump is back in the United States — and back to attacking democracy. He tweets:

The Florida Election should be called in favor of Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis in that large numbers of new ballots showed up out of nowhere, and many ballots are missing or forged. An honest vote count is no longer possible-ballots massively infected. Must go with Election Night!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 12, 2018

We should note that this is the talk of authoritarians; it shows contempt for the office of the president, whom the Constitution designates to “to take care” that the nation’s laws are faithfully executed. It’s also a frightful peek at what he might do in 2020 should the vote not go his way.

We all need to be prepared and not assume Trump and Trumpism will accede to losing power.  These are times very few if any of us have ever experienced before, and the stakes couldn't be any higher.

Monday Reading

As always, please go to the links for the full articles/ op eds.

E.J. Dionne, Jr., has a pretty good idea of what the agenda for House Democrats should be:

Expanding health coverage, reforming our democracy, restoring upward mobility with well-paying jobs, curbing gun violence and moving to repair our immigration system. 

Oh, yes, and protecting our constitutional republic from President Trump while rooting out corruption.  [snip]

Yes, many of their ideas will die in the Senate. But Republicans in that increasingly unrepresentative body should be made to pay a high price for thwarting progress. If the cost proves high enough, some good things might happen before 2020. 

This is not about Democrats going “hard left,” a phrase we’ll hear a lot on Fox News. What unites the staunch progressives and their less overtly ideological brethren who won many of last week’s contests is a desire to demonstrate that government, used intelligently, can make life better for the vast majority. 

One other specific item we would add:  safeguarding our elections from the voter suppression tactics Republicans use to undermine democracy, including standardized, verifiable, transparent voting systems and mechanisms.

Even though the damage has been done, the schadenfreude, it still burns:

On Tuesday, voters handed Democrats the House of Representatives — and may have also rendered a verdict on President Trump’s signature tax cuts. 

The House Ways and Means Committee, which oversees taxes and trade, saw four of its Republican members lose their seats. Those four defeats come after five other Republicans on the committee already left mid-term or decided to retire. 

With three more committee members running for other offices, come January, half of the 24 Republicans who wrote the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will no longer be in Congress. (our emphasis)

Sad!

Our hats are off to the often- maligned young voters, who played a major role in the Democratic blue wave with their energy, activism and votes:

As the Center For Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) reported on the day after the midterm elections, voters between the ages of 18 and 29 turned out in their highest number of the past quarter century, with exit poll calculations suggesting a sizable bounce from turnout in the 2014 midterms. Per CIRCLE: “The substantial increase in youth turnout is in many ways the culmination of an election cycle in which young people had an extraordinary impact through their activism, emphasis on voter registration, and—yesterday—overwhelming support for Democratic candidates.”  (our emphasis)

(An aside: Why would anyone still be asking, "Was it a blue wave?" Maybe it's our supposed gatekeepers of truth premature, false narrative?  CNN's Brian Stelter looks at how the media was quick to downplay Democratic gains in the House on Tuesday, establishing an early narrative that supported Trump's absurd claim that he was victorious -- as Masha Gessen has noted, the institutional media will not save us from the authoritarians.)

Steven Rogers shows us what a blue wave looks like downballot:

Democratic gains in state legislatures reclaimed more than 250 of the many seats lost during Barack Obama’s presidency. Democrats took functional control of an additional seven state legislative chambers, while Republicans took control of only one, the Alaska House. In addition, Democrats gained enough seats to deprive Republicans of supermajorities in Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. This will keep Republicans from having enough votes to override the vetoes of Democratic governors of those states. Democrats achieved supermajorities for themselves in seven chambers.

CNN is estimating the gains to be closer to 300, btw.

An example of how well Democrats did at the State and local level, our Republican governor easily won re- election in Maryland, but elsewhere, it was bad news for his withering party:

[Gov. Larry Hogan] faces a Senate with more left-of-center Democrats and a House of Delegates with an even larger supermajority — Democrats picked up at least five seats in that chamber.

Democrats will also lead all of the suburban power centers. Anne Arundel County Executive Steve Schuh (R) lost to Democrat Steuart Pittman, even though Hogan won that county by 40 percentage points. In Howard County, where Hogan’s margin of victory was about 14.5 percent, County Executive Allan H. Kittleman (R) lost to Democrat Calvin Ball. 

Democrat Johnny Olszewski Jr. won the executive’s race by a wide margin in Baltimore County, where Hogan captured 62 percent of the vote and vigorously campaigned for the GOP candidate Al Redmer. Democrats Angela Alsobrooks and Marc Elrich won the top jobs in Prince George’s and Montgomery counties, respectively... (our emphasis)

Victories like that are the largely untold stories of the 2018 blue wave.

Nate Silver crunches the numbers on previous wave elections:

For comparison, the House popular vote in things that are widely considered to be wave elections:
2010: R +6.8
2006: D +8.0
1994: R +7.1
So if we wind up at ~D +7.5 or so, we'll be pretty much exactly in line with those years. https://t.co/BMil3Uuw8j

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 10, 2018

He also looks at how votes for Democrats in House races would translate into an Electoral College stomping:

So here's an updated map showing House popular vote winners, mapped onto the Electoral College. Dark blue/dark red means the party won by >= 5 points, light blue/pink means it was close. pic.twitter.com/nehg9YEZ6u

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 11, 2018

Conclusion: It. Was. A. Wave.  If you see analysis to the contrary, it's by a hack, a troll or a nitwit (or all three).

As always, we recommend you check out Infidel 753's link round- up to blog posts of interest -- a great way to start the week.

Tweets Of The Day -- Blue Wave

Don't let the Republican noise machine and Republican- wired reporters and pundits convince you there wasn't a blue wave last Tuesday!  Here's the real narrative still playing out:

Here’s our current characterization of the uncalled Congressional races.

Solid D (>=95%): CA-48, CA-49, NM-2
Likely D (~85%): CA-10, NJ-3, NY-22, UT-4
Lean D (~65%): CA-39, CA-45, ME-2, AZ-Sen
Tossup (~50%):
Lean R: FL-Sen
Likely R: GA-7, NY-27, TX-23, MS-Sen (runoff)
Solid R:

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 10, 2018

Among Senate races held in swing states, Democrats won in PA, OH, MI, WI, MN (x2), NV and VA.

FL and AZ are uncalled.

Republicans haven't yet won any Senate races yet in what you'd think of a presidential swing states. MO is the closest but it's quite red now.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 9, 2018

In the last two days, Dems' national margin in House votes has crept up from 5.3% to 6.4% and should eventually rise well above 7%. https://t.co/0pm7oW1pFE

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 10, 2018

So, let's get this straight: Rohrabacher & Knight are done in #CA48 & #CA25. Dems already picked up open #CA49. Denham now well behind in #CA10. Walters & Kim hanging on for dear life in #CA45 & #CA39.

This could easily turn into a six seat bloodbath for CA Republicans.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 10, 2018

And let's not miss what's going on in the Mountain West (h/t Colorado Bureau Chief Shauna)

It Was A Blue Wave, And It's Just The Beginning

Amanda Litman tells us what we need to hear and know about Tuesday's blue wave election:

On November 6, 2018, Democrats won back the House, flipped seven governors’ seats and seven state legislative chambers, won more than 367 state legislative seats, and a 24-year-old woman named Elaissia Sears won her race to be justice of the peace in West Mesa Precinct, District 26, Arizona. 

You might not see Elaissia’s name on the front page of any newspapers, but as one of the nearly 200 young people elected to local office for the first time over the last two years through my organization, Run for Something, she’s the present and future of the Democratic Party. 

She’s part of a movement of young people—primarily women and people of color—who are doing more than just knocking on doors and making calls. They’re running, winning, leading, and they’re going to change the world. While this wave election should be celebrated (and yes, acknowledged as actually a wave election), it must also be clear that the wave has not crested yet. This cycle was about building a pipeline of generational talent and rethinking how we connect with progressive voters. (our emphasis)

And, despite the structural barriers raised by Republicans over the years,

Yet we persevered. Sure, we had to win the national popular vote by 9 percent in order to win the House. And yes, on the state level, it’s just as hard—in Wisconsin, for example, Democrats won all statewide offices, but the Republicans still control the state legislatures thanks to the way districts are allocated, compounded by vicious laws meant to suppress the vote. 

But, real talk: We can’t undo decades of concentrated and sustained investment by our opponents in just 18 months. It will take years of hard work, day in and day out. We’ll need to focus, go local, invest in infrastructure and shake off old and dated “conventional wisdom” about what a good candidate is and how to allocate resources.

Tuesday was a great start (and getting greater by the day as more House seats are called for Democrats and two Senate seats thought to be lost to Republicans are still much in play). It was the biggest wave election for Democrats in the House since the mid- terms following Watergate in 1974 -- that's 44 years! But, as Litman says, we have to be in this for the long haul, just as the ultra- right conservative movement has been for 4 decades or more.  Every election will bring victories and some defeats, but this year Democrats made huge strides -- the greatest of all being winning back the House (by a significant margin that's growing every day).  Everything else was gravy.

A New Day

We're still a bit bleary- eyed from watching the returns overnight, but here are some quick takeaways at the moment.

Overall:

-- Current projections have the Democrats winning 230 seats, taking over the House for the first time in eight years;

-- As expected, Republicans kept control of the Senate in a year where most of the battles were in deep red states.  There are 3 seats too close to call (MT, AZ and FL) and one run-off seat (MS).

-- Democrats flipped a number of Governor seats (7 at last count).

Here are screenshots of the state of play at this time (7:30 a.m. EST). Click on map to enlarge (but for detailed results, go to the link):

House:


(Map via NBC News.com)

Senate:


(Map via NBC News.com)

Governors:


(Map via NBC News.com)

Notable:

--  Over 100 women are projected to win seats in the House, the vast majority of them Democrats, setting an all- time high;

-- Sadly, Andrew Gillum lost his bid to be Governor of Florida, but Sen. Bill Nelson's re- election race is still too close to call;

-- The Georgia gubernatorial race is too close to call, with a large number of absentee and provisional ballots waiting to be counted.

-- Among the odious House Republicans going down to defeat: VA Reps. Dave Brat, Scott Taylor and Barbara Comstock; TX Reps. Pete Sessions and John Culberson;  NY Reps. Claudia Tennant, Dan Donovan and John Faso; MN Rep. Jason Lewis; IL Rep. Peter Roskam; GA's Karen Handel; and CA Rep. Dana Rohrabacher. Sessions, Culberson and Roskam were all committee chairs in the House.

--  Jacky Rosen beat Sen. Dean "Ol' Yeller" Heller in Nevada;  Nevada also has a new Democratic Governor, Steve Sisolak.

-- Democrats flipped key Governor seats in Nevada, New Mexico, Illinois, Michigan, and Maine; the odious Scott Walker was booted in Wisconsin by Tony Evers and the king of voter suppression, Kris "KKK" Kobach, was suppressed in Kansas by Laura Kelly.

-- Firsts:  two Muslim American women were elected to the House as Democrats, as were two Native American women (also as Democrats); and an openly gay man was elected Governor of Colorado.

-- A small but delicious victory:  homophobe Kentucky Court Clerk Kim Davis was defeated in her re- election bid.

BONUS:  Some more perspective on a very good night overall --

We should be talking about the projected raw popular vote totals much more. In terms of raw votes, this is shaping up to be a massive wave. That it may not translate into an enormous margin in a wave of seats is an indictment of how we draw districts more than anything. pic.twitter.com/D0j96RbjCs

— Brian Klaas (@brianklaas) November 7, 2018

BONUS II:  If Dem Kyrsten Sinema loses the Senate race in Arizona, you can thank the useful idiots who voted for the Green Party candidate, who's pulling down about 2% of the vote. Oh, that's the same Green Party candidate who dropped out of the race last week and threw her support to Sinema.

Tweet Of The Day -- Ready For Election Day

Me voting in 2016 vs me voting in 2018 pic.twitter.com/wM8l1uGvLe

— Jennifer Reitman (@JenniferReitman) November 5, 2018

Many more 2016/ 2018 memes here.

(h/t Balloon Juice)

Tools For Voters

If you haven't already early voted, Laura Clawson/ Daily Kos has some Election Day resources to keep handy.

If you need to check where you go to vote, go to:

https://www.vote.org/polling-place-locator/

If you encounter any problems voting, use these hotlines for help:

o English 866-OUR-VOTE (866-687-8683) 

o Spanish 888-VE-Y-VOTA (888-839-8682) 

o Arabic 844-YALLA-US (844-925-5287) 

o Chinese, Vietnamese, Korean, Bengali, Hindi, Urdu and Tagalog 888-API-VOTE (888- 274-8683) 

o American Sign Language video call number: 301-818-VOTE (301-818-8683) 

o SMS (text message) hotline (English): text OUR VOTE to 97779

"Trump is on the ballot. Vote accordingly."

Monday Pre-Election Reading

As always, please go to the links for the full articles/ op eds (and, if you haven't already, VOTE tomorrow!).

Francis Wilkinson writes about the pervasive racism in the Republican Party, and offers poll after poll illuminating how their base has shifted ever further into the dark recesses of racial resentment and ignorance.  Here's his conclusion:

Preservation of a racial hierarchy is the glue that holds much of the GOP’s rickety planks together. It’s the basis of Trump’s call to end birthright citizenship. [snip] 

The broader electorate may be ready to reject GOP control of at least the House on Tuesday. Perhaps that will deter Republicans from advancing their race war. But it’s possible that they’ve steeped in their resentments for too long, and traveled with Trump too far. They may not want to go back, or even know how to.  (our emphasis)

Republicans need to be defeated at all levels, over and over again.

Leonard Pitts, Jr., puts it bluntly:

... Tuesday is about what we do for ourselves, for our country. It is about whether those of us who see this madness for what it is acquiesce to it or whether, like the guy in Rockwell’s painting, we stand up and speak out. It shouldn’t be a hard choice. 

If you find this calamity unacceptable, make your case. 

If you think we should be better than this, raise your voice. 

If you are disgusted and appalled, make yourself heard. 

Because we could absolutely lose America. Or, we could save it. 

What do you say?

We say, Republicans need to be defeated at all levels, over and over again.

"Trump is on the ballot.  Vote accordingly."  ABC News:

President Donald Trump has repeatedly refused to accept any responsibility for inciting violence in American communities, dismissing critics who have pointed to his rhetoric as a potential source of inspiration for some citizens acting on bigoted beliefs. [snip] 

But a nationwide review conducted by ABC News has identified at least 17 criminal cases where Trump's name was invoked in direct connection with violent acts, threats of violence or allegations of assault. 

Nearly all -- 16 of 17 -- cases identified by ABC News are striking in that court documents and direct evidence reflect someone echoing presidential rhetoric, not protesting it. ABC News was unable to find any such case echoing presidential rhetoric when Barack Obama or George W. Bush were in the White House.  (our emphasis)

Republicans need to be defeated at all levels, over and over again.

Meanwhile, here's more on the vote- suppressing, racist über- Trumper running for governor of Georgia while simultaneously running the election there, Georgia Secretary of State Brian "No Show" Kemp, and his banana Republican last- minute effort to smear Democrats for his fraud- friendly voting system:

But the latest appalling move by Kemp to publicly accuse the Democrats of hacking without evidence is even worse than that: Kemp has been one of the few state election officials to refuse help from the federal Department of Homeland Security to deter foreign and domestic hacking of voter registration databases. After computer scientists demonstrated the insecurity of the state’s voting system, he was sued for having perhaps the most vulnerable election system in the country. His office has been plausibly accused of destroying evidence, which would have helped to prove the vulnerabilities of the state election system.  [snip]

 ... [The latest episode] shows Democrats, like many others, pointing out the glaring security flaws in Georgia’s voting system. To turn this around and blame Democrats is an act of political chutzpah by an election official on par with nothing else I’ve seen. 

It is bad enough there is a partisan election official running Georgia’s elections. It is also bad enough that this partisan election official is in charge of his very own election, an election where he is running in a very tight race against Democrat Stacey Abrams, and that he has engaged in acts of voters suppression aimed to decrease the turnout for the candidate who would be this nation’s first black woman to win a governor’s mansion. It is still worse that we have an election official who, according to audio leaked to Rolling Stone, expressed concern about the state’s citizens exercising their rights to vote via absentee ballot: “[Democrats] have just an unprecedented number of [absentee ballot applications],” he said, “which is something that continues to concern us, especially if everybody uses and exercises their right to vote—which they absolutely can—and mail those ballots in, we gotta have heavy turnout to offset that.” 

But what Kemp has done now goes beyond the pale. He’s accused his opponents of election tampering without evidence on the eve of the election, and plastered the incendiary charge on an official state website in the days before his office will administer that election. This is some banana republic stuff.  (our emphasis)

This speaks for us:

There are few more disgracefully corrupt figures in American public life than Kemp. He should be nowhere in the vicinity of a position of public trust. Enabler of Russian interference in our elections, racist scoundrel.

— Norman Ornstein (@NormOrnstein) November 4, 2018

Republicans need to be defeated at all levels, especially this shitbag Kemp.

As always, we close with a recommendation to check out Infidel 753's link round- up for a great assortment of interesting political, social, universal, etc., topics.  A fine way to start the week.

Closing Arguments

Eugene Robinson nails the contrast between the Republican Trumpist closing mid- term argument and that of the Democrats:

The Republican Party’s closing argument for the midterm election is a bit confusing: 

“It’s all about President Trump — unless he angers, appalls or disgusts you, in which case we’ve never heard of anyone named Trump. We have also never heard of policies we’ve voted for repeatedly, such as eliminating the guarantee of health insurance for those with preexisting conditions, or slashing vital programs such as Medicare and Social Security. Please forget that we cut taxes for millionaires and corporations but not for you. And please, please , be terrified of a few traumatized refugees, mostly women and children, somewhere in southern Mexico.” The party then pulls down its pants and babbles unintelligibly before being gently led offstage. 

The Democratic Party’s closing argument, by contrast, is simple and compelling: “Stop the madness.” 

Just stop it. Vote to give Democrats control of the House, the Senate, governorships, state legislatures, everything. Take a stand for decency, for civility, for sanity — and, in the long run, help the GOP recover the mind it has lost and the soul it has surrendered.

Frankly, we'd rather not "help the GOP recover" anything.  They're a bankrupt, rotted- out collection of cowards, sociopaths, misogynists, racists, homophobes, authoritarians, etc., etc., and we don't see any reason to believe that either their "mind" or "soul" are recoverable.

Paul Krugman looks at the lies Republicans are telling about menacing caravans supported by Jewish financiers, protecting the health insurance of people with pre- existing conditions, protecting Medicare and Social Security, and their wealthfare tax cuts for the rich and corporations:

The crucial thing to realize is that these aren’t just ugly, destructive lies. Beyond that, they shape the G.O.P.’s nature. It is now impossible to have intellectual integrity and a conscience while remaining a Republican in good standing. Some conservatives have these qualities; almost all of them have left the party, or are on the edge of excommunication. 

Those who remain are either fanatics willing to do anything in pursuit of power, or cynics willing to go along with anything for a share of the spoils. And it’s foolish to imagine that there are any limits on how far a party of fanatics and cynics will be willing to go. Anyone who might have had a sticking point, some uncrossable red line of bad behavior, has already taken the offramp. 

That’s why a Republican campaign built entirely on lies should itself be a political issue — a reason to vote Democratic even if you want tax cuts. For we’re not just talking about a party selling bad ideas on false pretenses. The addiction to lies has also — let’s be blunt — turned it into a party of bad people.

How could a party that has enabled and embraced the likes of Donald "Rump" Trump be anything but a party of bad people?

We have to believe there's still a majority of voters who don't want the Republican madness to continue and that they will take the time to cast a vote to save American democracy on November 6.  If anyone sits this one out for whatever reason, or worse, if they vote to keep any Republican in office, they're complicit in the damage that has been and remains to be done by these bad people.

As Robinson said, "Take a stand for decency, for civility, for sanity."

BONUS:

If Republicans have a good night on Tuesday and think they won the midterm on the basis of immigration/xenophobia/race-baiting, just imagine how much Trump is going to turn the dial up in 2020.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2018

BONUS II:  Remember their depravity --

Republicans,

11 people were KILLED. It was the largest antisemitic attack in US HISTORY.

Your monster of a President is complaining their deaths slowed his MOMENTUM. https://t.co/S3gu2pHWFD

— Mikel Jollett (@Mikel_Jollett) November 2, 2018

So Much For A "Red Wave"?

Large chunks of the media have been buying and propagating without analysis the spin Republicans have been selling, that the KavaNut confirmation fight has energized their mouth- frothing MAGA base into a red wave mid- term election. The latest CNN poll just popped that sad little balloon:

 o Among registered voters NOT in favor of confirmation, 58 percent are "very enthusiastic" to vote. 

 o Among registered voters who favored confirmation, only 40 percent say they are "very enthusiastic" to vote.

What the anti- democratic, misogynist, male privilege KavaNut shitshow that just transpired did do was to sure as hell energize the sane portion of the population:

New CNN poll: Democrats advantage in generic ballot widens to 13%

CNN POLL CONDUCTED BY SSRS
Oct. 4-7
Likely Voters’
Choice for Congress

                           Democrat  Republican

Now                   54%          41%
September        52%          42%

— Jim Sciutto (@jimsciutto) October 9, 2018

Four weeks from today, we will be heard loud and clear at the polls that count.

Sen. Heitkamp Battles A Creepy Cretin

North Dakota Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp's "no" vote on KavaNut's confirmation was a profile in courage and principle if there ever was one.  Unlike West Virginia's "Democratic" Sen. Joe Manchin, she cast her vote as the right thing to do, and certainly not as a "smart" political vote in her deep red state.

We've had issues with her in the past, but that's more than enough reason to support her in her re- election bid.  Knowing the creepy cretin who's running against her only adds to the urgency that she win.

Representative Kevin Cramer of North Dakota has repeatedly made headlines this year in his race against Senator Heidi Heitkamp because of off-the-cuff comments that range from inflammatory to indelicate. But his latest provocation on sexual misconduct sparked a furious and tearful rejoinder from Ms. Heitkamp on Sunday, one day after she voted to oppose the Supreme Court nomination of Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh.

Asked about Dr. Blasey Ford's testimony and the #MeToo movement, Cramer opined,

“That you’re just supposed to believe somebody because they said it happened,” Mr. Cramer said, alluding to Christine Blasey Ford — who has accused Justice Kavanaugh of sexually assaulting her when they were teenagers — and, more broadly, women who have come forward to claim that they were sexually abused or assaulted. 

Invoking his wife, daughters, mother and mother-in-law, Mr. Cramer said: “They cannot understand this movement toward victimization. They are pioneers of the prairie. These are tough people whose grandparents were tough and great-grandparents were tough.”  (our emphasis)

Sen. Heitkamp had the right response:

“The better part of my career in public life has been working with victims,” said Ms. Heitkamp, a former state attorney general. “Did you ask him how many victims during this process he actually sat down with, and survivors he sat down with, and visited with personally?” 

Then Ms. Heitkamp’s voice grew thick with emotion. 

“I think it’s wonderful that his wife has never had an experience, and good for her, and it’s wonderful his mom hasn’t,” she said. “My mom did. And I think it affected my mom her whole life. And it didn’t make her less strong.” 

With tears welling in her eyes, Ms. Heitkamp stared intently at a reporter and continued: “And I want you to put this in there, it did not make my mom less strong that she was a victim. She got stronger and she made us strong. And to suggest that this movement doesn’t make women strong and stronger is really unfortunate.”  (our emphasis)

Here's a link to Sen. Heitkamp's interview on "60 Minutes" last Sunday.

It's not the first time dimwit Cramer stepped in it.  Back in September he said Dr. Ford's allegation was "absurd" and that it was "supposedly an attempt or something that never went anywhere."  He dug the hole deeper a few days later, saying "there was no type of intercourse or anything like that" (which, of course, does not mean there wasn't a sexual assault).  Seeing this steaming wad of vicious cluelessness defeated would be one of the highlights of the coming mid- terms.

We've directed our readers to many campaign web sites in the past, but saving someone like Sen. Heitkamp (and the rest of us) from Cramer is now high on our list.  Support her if you can.

Yesterday's Primaries In Florida And Arizona

Yesterday's primaries in Florida and Arizona produced some interesting outcomes. Here's Five Thirty Eight's take on two of the biggest results:

o The big headline of the night: Progressive Andrew Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, notched a surprise win in the Democratic primary for Florida governor, 34 percent to 31 percent, over moderate former Rep. Gwen Graham. It was less of a surprise, but the more ideologically “pure” candidate won on the Republican side too, with Rep. Ron DeSantis defeating Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam (who was practically the state GOP’s anointed successor) 57 percent to 37 percent. It sets up a rollicking and unpredictable general election, in which Gillum will surely be hit for an FBI investigation into his mayoral administration and DeSantis’s bear hugs of Trump will be played on repeat for swing voters during commercial breaks. 

o Rep. Martha McSally defeated former state Sen. Kelli Ward and former Sheriff Joe Arpaio to win the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate in Arizona. The vote is still being tallied as I’m writing, but McSally is right around 50 percent and it looks like she’ll win by pretty much exactly the margin people expected. The once Trump-skeptical McSally did an impressive job appealing to the president’s wing of the party against two immigration hardliners who were arguably Trump before Trump. Establishment Republicans are also relieved, because McSally was by far their strongest candidate against Democratic nominee Kyrsten Sinema.

Florida is a closed primary (you have to be registered either Democrat or Republican to vote), while Arizona is an open primary (any registered voter can vote).  In the Florida gubernatorial race, the Democratic candidates got 1,508,984 votes against 1,618,013 votes for the Republicans. Clearly in that race, as well as the Senate race pitting incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson against grifty Gov. Rick "Batboy" Scott, Democrats will need to keep their voters and get a significant turnout from independents to get across the finish line with wins.

In the Arizona Senate race, the Democratic votes were 361,909 against 456,467 for the Republicans. The Democratic race was not hotly contested, while the Republican race was, which may have affected turnout.  It's also unclear how independents turned out and how they voted. But, regardless, Democrats will have their work cut out for them to get a Democrat elected to fill retiring Sen. Jeff Flake's Republican seat.

Lots of work to be done in both of these critical states before November!

BONUS:  Trump- idolizing Republican candidate for Florida governor, Rick DeSantis is already blowing the dog whistle at his African- American opponent, Andrew Gillum.

Russian State TV To Trump: "Do What We Say"

They're not even trying to pretend any more:

One of Russia’s state-run TV news programs this week expressed displeasure with newly announced sanctions being leveled against the Kremlin — and one guest said that it was time to put direct pressure on President Donald Trump to get his administration to back off. [snip] 

Vitaly Tretyakov, the dean of the Moscow State University’s School of Television, argued that the Russian government should use whatever leverage it had over Trump to bend the president to its will. 

“Let’s turn this into a headache for Trump,” he said, according to Davis’ translation. “If you want us to support you in the elections, do what we say.”  (our emphasis)

Raw Story has the video at the link above.

Unlike what the benighted goobers may "think" in the precincts of Trumpland, the fact that Putin puppet Donald "Rump" Trump is a compromised tool of the Russian government is taken for granted and freely discussed in Russia. It must make for an endless source of amusement to them that there are so many ignorant American suckers blindly following the Kremlin's coffee boy.

Quick Takes On Yesterday's Election Results

Democrats and labor had a very good day in yesterday's voting, continuing a trend of overcoming the partisan lean of seats through heavy turnout (especially in suburbs with higher percentages of college educated voters).   Some preliminary takes:

Danny O’Connor, win or lose against Troy Balderson, has proven that a +11 Republican district, #OH12, can completely be wiped out by a #bluewave.

Republicans should be afraid, very afraid! The wave is coming for you!

— Ed Krassenstein (@EdKrassen) August 8, 2018

There are 68 R-held House seats less Republican than #OH12, per @CookPolitical PVI, and 119 less Republican than the #PA18 seat Dems won in March. Dems need to flip 23 to win House.

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 8, 2018

The polls have mostly been very accurate in the 2017/18 cycle so far—and when they've missed, they've lowballed Democrats, not Republicans. https://t.co/tBrVTRYiDI

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 8, 2018

Missouri's right to work law is on the ballot today bc the GOP legislature moved it to August, thinking Democrats/labor would be weaker than if the issue made the November ballot.

With 94% of precincts reporting, right to work has been rejected by a 2-1 margin.

— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) August 8, 2018

Democratic women candidates continue to rule:

-- Democrats are also fielding a strong all- female statewide ticket in Michigan.

-- Democrat Laura Kelly will be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Kansas, possibly facing ultra- right sociopath Kris Kobach.

-- The chair of the House Republican Conference, Cathy McMorris Rodgers, will face Lisa Brown in Washington's Fifth Congressional District in the fall, barely outpolling her in the "top two advance" primary.

The trend continues; the blue wave approaches.

BONUS:  More analysis here and here.