Ace pollster (who pegged the 2018 midterms almost flawlessly) Rachel Bitecofer has updated her 2020 election forecast, and with the usual huge caveat that "the only poll that matters is on Election Day," it's a soother:
... In the July 2019 release of this forecast, I said that little could occur that could alter the basic contours of this election cycle: Democrats are fired up in a way they were not in 2016 because of negative partisanship powered by backlash to Trump and thus would increase their turnout significantly and be less likely to defect to third-party candidates.
I also said, “barring a significant shock to the system, Democrats recapture the presidency.” Significant disruptions I identified included an economic recession, but with the market humming along, willing to handicap Trump even on trade wars with China and Europe, and rate cuts keeping the economy around its 2016 metrics in terms of growth and unemployment, a recession seemed unlikely. Now it is all but certain this fall’s general election will take place immersed in a serious one, with some early reports suggesting potential unemployment numbers, at least in the short term, well into the teens.
To be sure, voters will likely see this recession as they saw the first term of Obama’s presidency, in context. No president can do much to avoid a total standstill of the global economy from an unprecedented virus. But Trump’s mismanagement of the underlying pandemic causing the economy to melt down will be judged by voters, and it’s already clear that the president’s missteps in the early days of the pandemic are exacerbating America’s economic woes. (our emphasis)There's so much more detail in her update at the link above. If you're interested in all the variables, assumptions, etc., check it out.
Here's what her electoral map looks like (click to enlarge):
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| (Rachel Bitecofer, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020) |
A quick takeaway: bumbling "wartime president" Donald "Moron Vector" Trump has a lot more work to get to 270 than does the presumptive Dem nominee Joe Biden.
We need to work every day between now and the election to make this happen (and to flip the Senate!). Stay positive.
2 comments:
I think, at least in the short-term, we are more likely to see Goldman Sachs prediction of 30% unemployment, more than the 25% at the height of the Depression but hopefully it won't last as long. If the Orange Moron really does end the mass quarantine soon, we are going to see a big spike in C-19 cases and deaths, especially in the pandemic-denying red states and a spike in deaths among the demographic that votes the most for him.
But we will need to be going to national mail-in voting since the pandemic will most certainly not be done by November.
Jimbo -- agree.
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