Friday, April 1, 2022

"The Most Rapid Labor Market Rebound On Record"


A story too complex and counter- narrative for the media to cover, since it doesn't involve a reporter and a camera crew finding the most expensive gas station in town and filming the prices:

The national unemployment rate fell to a pandemic low of 3.6 percent in March, as employers added 431,000 jobs, further bolstering the most rapid labor market rebound on record.

Average hourly wages for private-sector workers, rose by 13 cents to $31.73 in March, the Labor Department said Friday.

The labor market is pretty close to healing from the shock of the covid pandemic two years ago, having recovered 93 percent of the 22 million jobs lost early in the pandemic.

Both the unemployment rate and the number of people without jobs are almost down to pre-pandemic levels, but other parts of the labor market have yet to recover. The percentage of American workers who have a job or actively looking for work is still lower than it was before the crisis. And while wages have risen 5.6 percent in the last year, they have not kept up with inflation of 7.9 percent.

This is the 11th consecutive month that employers have added more than 400,000 jobs, which is considered a particularly strong pace of job growth.

“It’s been a remarkable recovery — we’ve never seen anything like this,” said Jane Oates, president of the employment-focused nonprofit WorkingNation and a former Labor Department official. “Two years ago, every sector was at least disrupted if not completely shut down. But we’ve had such a quick recovery that things are almost back to normal.”  (our emphasis)

Bo-ring!!

But, yes, this is all very good news... except for inflation outpacing wage growth, which is the glass half empty part of the story the media likes to focus on.  It's unlikely the worldwide supply chain outlook and pent-up consumer demand will change much during 2022, and the crisis brought on by Putin's invasion of Ukraine has only added to the problem, contributing to oil and gas shortages and speculation.  All of that means continuing inflationary pressures.  If only we'd had a competent administration in 2019/20 with a competent response to the pandemic.

President Biden's decision to release 1 million barrels/day of Strategic Petroleum Reserve oil into the market will bring prices down and ease inflationary pressures.  He also pressed oil companies to increase domestic oil production during this critical time and to not take advantage of the situation to raise prices at the pump (an economy based on clean energy remains a glimmer on the distant horizon).  Counting on oil companies to do the right thing is a big stretch, but today we'll take whatever good news comes along.