Analysis: Hospital Attack Came From Inside Gaza

 

A visual analysis by the Associated Press of Tuesday’s explosion at Gaza’s al-Ahli Arab Hospital indicates that it was most likely caused by a rocket fired from within Palestinian territory. AP's analysis confirms U.S. intelligence obtained through satellite imagery and signal intelligence that a Palestinian terrorist group -- Islamic Jihad -- was responsible for the misfire that reportedly killed hundreds of people. From the AP:

"Shortly before 7 p.m. Tuesday, a volley of rockets lit up the darkened sky over Gaza. Videos analyzed by The Associated Press show one veering off course, breaking up in the air before crashing to the ground.

Seconds later, the videos show a large explosion in the same area – the site of Gaza’s al-Ahli Arab Hospital.  [snip]

The AP analyzed more than a dozen videos from the moments before, during and after the hospital explosion, as well as satellite imagery and photos. AP’s analysis shows that the rocket that broke up in the air was fired from within Palestinian territory, and that the hospital explosion was most likely caused when part of that rocket crashed to the ground.

A lack of forensic evidence and the difficulty of gathering that material on the ground in the middle of a war means there is no definitive proof the break-up of the rocket and the explosion at the hospital are linked. However, AP’s assessment is supported by a range of experts with specialties in open-source intelligence, geolocation and rocketry.

'In the absence of additional evidence, the most likely scenario would be that it was a rocket launched from Gaza that failed mid-flight and that it mistakenly hit the hospital,' said Henry Schlottman, a former U.S. Army intelligence analyst and open-source intelligence expert."  (our emphasis)

The disinformation put out immediately after the explosion by Hamas led many news organizations and Arab governments in the region to blame Israel for the explosion. It wasn't until Wednesday that President Biden, while in Israel, revealed that the U.S. had intelligence that put the responsibility on Islamic Jihad, a terrorist group in Gaza.

There's more detailed evidence in the AP analysis, evidence that news organizations, nations and individuals always ready to blame Israel didn't wait for before rushing to echo Hamas' line.