As many surmised, it's looking like the electoral impact of the decision by brain worm infested RFK, Jr., to drop out of the presidential race and endorse the highest bidder, i.e., the Malignant Loser, is most likely a wash:
... Both Trump and Kamala Harris have gained ground versus yesterday’s model run, the last one to include Kennedy. Harris’s polling average has improved from 48.0 percent yesterday to 48.8 percent today (+0.8), while Trump’s has increased from 43.7 to 44.8 (+1.1).
There are a couple of essential things to note here. First, yes, Trump has gained slightly more than Harris from the change, although it’s pretty minor, a net gain of 0.3 percentage points... And second, we’re seeing the beginnings of a convention bounce for Harris. Even with the Kennedy change, she’s now ahead by 4.0 points in the national polling average versus 2.3 points when the DNC started. Our best guess is that her lead will increase further, especially given that almost none of the polling was done after her strong acceptance speech on Thursday...
The electorate's impression of the bear- dumping, conspiracy- mongering, endlessly effed- up Kennedy was already a negative one going into this weekend, making his quid pro quo endorsement of the convicted felon macht nichts (using all our language skillz here). If anything, getting his endorsement has crystallized the Malignant Loser's "coalition of the weird" impression, of which voters are ever more aware.
This is by no means to say Democrats should be complacent (see 2000 and 2016). As the Harris-Walz campaign says, it's a race to election day and we've got to see ourselves as underdogs regardless of the polls -- because people vote, polls don't. We need to win this.
(Cartoon: David Rowe, Financial Review, Sydney, Australia)
5 comments:
Trump put out a "Truth" of a photo with him and RFK, Jr. together and said it was a good-looking ticket! A lot of people have thought that was a clue and not just dementia. Now people are speaking of "an October surprise" and a new ticket! Oh, please, yes, be that stupid!! 🤞
With the dated electoral college the popular/national polls are meaningless. The only thing that matters is electoral vote, and in a close contest that comes down to a few counties in usually meaningless places. That means most people's votes are for nothing. And some may say the Dems were too "complacent" in 2000 and 2016. The facts show both had major interference from domestic sources in 2000 and Russian sources (and their assets here). Both were from the party of Trump. Interestingly, both were at some point concede gracefully and we had a peaceful transition of power.
usar - well, national polls aren't meaningless, because they can show trends that can also extrapolate to the "meaningless places" as you call them. No argument that the election will be decided in the battleground states, in jurisdictions within those states, and by the electoral college vote. If you say most people's votes are for nothing, that's essentially a line of thought that suppresses voting. Every vote means something in every state, particularly downballot voting that decides House and Senate control and control of all important state houses and legislatures.
I'm still worried about the number of electors who are vowing not to certify unless Trump wins. Particularly if these protests go all the way to the Supreme Court.
Seafury - yes, that's worrisome all right.
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