Tennessee Special Election Tuesday

 

Another special election is coming up this Tuesday, December 2, in the 7th Congressional District in Tennessee.  The election pits "corporate" Republican Matt Van Epps against progressive Democrat Aftyn Behn in a district the Malignant Fascist won by 22 points in November 2024.  The race is to fill the seat of Republican Mark Green, who resigned in July to cash in on his Congressional service.  How's it looking for the team (our emphasis)?

In the suburban and rural counties around Nashville, Tennessee, drivers passing under the bridges above area highways are witnessing a new phenomenon: “bridge brigades” holding aloft American flags, cheering, and pointing to brightly lit signs urging “Vote Aftyn.”

What’s striking is that “Aftyn” is a Democrat—State Representative Aftyn Behn—who is running what looks to be a competitive race for an open congressional seat in a historically Republican and, more recently, pro-Trump district.

Republicans have taken a beating recently, what with the sweeping rejection of Republican candidates in the November 4 off-year elections for the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia, along with victories for Democrats in three Pennsylvania State Supreme Court seats, state and local posts in Georgia, legislative seats in Mississippi, and so many other contests around the country. But if Behn, a 36-year-old former community organizer, can win the special election in Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District on December 2, she might pull off the biggest upset of the year. That’s because, unlike Democrats in some of the other marquee 2025 contests, she’s fighting to flip a seat where the party has not been competitive for a long time.

And fresh data suggests she’s within range of a win. Emerson College Polling, one of the most respected survey research groups in the country, released a poll Wednesday morning that has Behn at 46 percent, versus 48 percent for corporate Republican Matt Van Epps.

With at least 5 percent of the voters in the Tennessee district undecided, this is now a “within-the-margin-of-error” race that Behn says she can win. “I woke up with the energy of a thousand Dolly Partons,” she said as she was canvassing Wednesday morning. To voters, especially the young people that her campaign has energized, Behn announced, “You have the opportunity of a lifetime to flip a congressional district.”

In a district that has been so Republican red for so long, this is still an uphill race. But national Democrats, activist groups such as Progressive Democrats of America (PDA), and a growing number of pundits share Behn’s view that something is big happening in Tennessee this fall. In addition to the encouraging poll numbers, her campaign notes that The Cook Political Report has moved the race from “Solid Republican” to “Lean Republican” and that early voting patterns have suggested that Democratic enthusiasm is surging.

She has a strong campaign message:

Behn has made her advocacy for access to healthcare, along with her boldness in embracing affordability issues and criticizing the Republican-backed “Big Ugly Bill,” central to her message as the special election approaches. With support from labor unions and progressive groups like PDA, she has aired television ads that bluntly declare, “I’m Aftyn Behn. We all know the system is rigged in Washington. Here’s how it works: Politicians make it easy for their rich donors—tax cuts for billionaires, and burying the Epstein files. While hardworking Tennesseans get a rough ride by cutting healthcare for Tennessee families, doubling health insurance premiums and tariffs that hurt our economy.”

Here's the Republican-gerrymandered Tennessee 7th (click to enlarge), with a Democratic stronghold in Davidson County (Nashville), and purple Montgomery County on the Kentucky border):

If Behn is tapping into "surging" Democratic enthusiasm, she has a chance to outperform the polls and the electoral history of the district, and bring home another win for Democrats.  That would certainly cause Squeaker of the House Mike "New Moses" Johnson to lose that smug look on his face.  Time to vote, Volunteers!

(Photo:  Aftyn Behn / George Walker IV, AP)