Thursday, November 5, 2026

The Blue Monsoon -- By The Numbers

 



Now that the dust has settled on the 2026 mid-term elections (except in Alaska and Mississippi's Senate races and a dozen or so House races), just how historic was the Democratic victory on November 3?  This is why we call it a "blue monsoon" (from Andrew Romano at Yahoo News):


Winning the House

26: the average number of House seats the president's party has lost in midterm elections since World War II (pre-2026)

40+: the projected number of House seats that will flip to Democrats in 2026, once all the votes are counted 

About 255: the projected size of the new Democratic House majority — the largest since 2008, and possibly since 1992

6.8 percentage points: the Republican popular vote margin in their 1994 and 2010 House midterm victories

13 points: the projected Democratic popular vote margin in their 2026 House midterm victory

1974: the last time either party won their House popular vote by that much in a midterm election

More than 100: the number of Democratic women who will serve simultaneously in the House — a historic first


Flipping the Senate

4: the average number of Senate seats the president's party has lost in midterm elections since World War II (pre-2026)

9: the number of Republican Senate seats that have either flipped to Democrats in 2026 (Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Texas) or could flip once all the votes are counted (Alaska, Mississippi)

55-56: the projected size of the new Democratic Senate majority — the largest since the early 2010s

2014: the last time a party — the Republicans — flipped 9 Senate seats in a midterm election

1958: the last time a party flipped more than 9 Senate seats in a midterm election

1982: the last time Mississippi elected a Democratic senator

12 points: Trump's average margin of victory in 2024 in the nine states where Democrats flipped or could still flip a Republican Senate seat this year

1986: The last midterm in which more than two Senate seats flipped in states where the president won by double-digit margins two years earlier

At least 17: the number of senators from both parties who will be replaced in the chamber after the 2026 midterms — the largest turnover since 1980 

70: the average age of this year's departing senators

At least 15: the number of senators from both parties who will be under 50 when they're sworn into office in January 2027 — up from eight previously


Closing the 'governor gap'

6: the number of Republican governorships that have either flipped to Democrats in 2026 (Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Nevada, Texas) or could flip once all the votes are counted (Alaska)

As many as 30: the number of governorships that Democrats could control once all the votes are counted

2010: The last time Democrats controlled a majority of governorships

About 75%: the percentage of Americans who will live in states with Democratic governors after the 2026 midterms 

At least 17: the number of women who will serve as governors, a record, up from 14


How voters shifted

63%: the percentage of exit poll respondents who said they disapprove of how Trump is handling his job as president

54%: the percentage of exit poll respondents who said they "strongly" disapprove of how Trump is handling his job as president

37%: the percentage of exit poll respondents who said they approve of how Trump is handling his job as president — the lowest midterm approval of any president since at least 2006

91%: the percentage of exit poll respondents who said government corruption was a crucial or major factor in their vote for Congress

62%: the percentage of exit poll respondents who said Trump prioritizes his own personal interests over the country's interests

89%: the percentage of exit poll respondents who said the cost of living was a crucial or major factor in their vote for Congress

66%: the percentage of exit poll respondents who said Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions in the U.S. 

+15 percentage points: An early estimate of how much better Democrats performed nationwide in 2026 vs. 2024 (via the New York Times)

+20 points: An early estimate of how much better Democrats performed in the South in 2026 vs. 2024 

+28 points: An early estimate of how much better Democrats performed with Latino voters in 2026 

+32 points: An early estimate of much better Democrats performed with young voters (ages 18-29) in 2026 vs. 2024


Turning Texas blue

2.6 percentage points: Democrat James Talarico's final lead in the polls, on average 

About 12 points: Talarico's actual margin of victory over Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 midterm election

1988: The last time Texas elected a Democratic senator

5.26 million: The number of votes Joe Biden received in Texas in the 2020 presidential election

5.45 million: The number of votes Talarico has received in Texas in the 2026 midterm election — the most ever for a Democrat

64%: The estimated percentage of Texas independent voters that Talarico won in the 2026 midterm election 

70%: The estimated percentage of Texas Latino voters that Talarico won in the 2026 midterm election 

73%: The estimated percentage of young voters (ages 18-29) that Talarico won in the 2026 midterm election


Democrats have had an historic election victory.  Now they must follow up with an historic 2-year effort to pull the plug on the Malignant Fascist's war of choice in Iran, address the affordability crisis and wealth disparity, go after the regime's pervasive corruption, end the cruel and brutal immigration enforcement actions, and much more. The MF will be trying to block almost everything, but the American people voted for fighters, and that's what they need to see.

(Photo: Austin, TX, Tuesday night / Chip Somodevilla, Getty)

 

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