Yesterday's Primaries

 

Our friends over at Electoral-vote.com give us the top-line results from yesterday's most-watched primaries:

Governor, Wisconsin: The polls said Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong (D) would win her party's nomination in a walk. The aggregators all had her up an average of 23-25 points. The two polls of the race conducted in August (and therefore after Mandela Barnes dropped out) had her up 22 points (44% to 22%) and 18 points (42% to 24%) on the more moderate David Crowley.

The race went down to the wire, with the counting of the ballots continuing into the wee hours of the morning. But finally, with a bit more than 98% of the vote in, it was called... for Crowley. As of 1:00 a.m. PT, Crowley has 39.78% of the vote to 39.37% of the vote. The last big tranche of votes was from Milwaukee, and they put Crowley over the top, as he outpaced Hong by about 5% there. NBC News was the first to call the race for Crowley, but the AP, Decision Desk HQ and other outlets followed suit soon thereafter. [snip]

U.S. Senator, Minnesota: Here, the progressives had a stronger candidate, and got the result they wanted. Looking to replace the retiring Sen. Tina Smith (DFL-MN), the more progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (DFL) trounced the more moderate Rep. Angie Craig (DFL), 59.0% to 39.4%. Flanagan has twice won statewide, and is not prone to saying unwise things that can easily be turned into Republican campaign ads. Between Flanagan and El-Sayed, the lefty wing of the Democratic Party is going to be watching the upper Midwest with great interest on election night.

The Republican in the race, as expected, will be former TV sports reporter Michele Tafoya. She is somewhat the opposite of Flanagan, as she has no political experience and a pretty long history of saying stupid things. The most recent poll of this matchup gives Flanagan a 7-point lead over Tafoya, 51% to 44%. It's a pretty old poll (conducted in late May), but that matches our gut feel, as Tafoya is certainly the weaker candidate and Minnesota is just barely swingy these days. The race raters all have it as either "Likely D" or "Safe D."  

U.S. Senator, South Carolina: An important election, though one that did not offer much in the way of surprises. The Donald Trump-backed Darline Graham (R), sister of Lindsey, took 32.7% of the vote, which was not enough to avoid an August 25 runoff, but was enough to be one of the two candidates to advance. Her opponent will be Rep. Ralph Norman (R), who claimed 24.6% of the vote. Lindsey was not especially popular in South Carolina, Darline is a cipher, and Trump's endorsement doesn't have quite the oomph it once did, so this one could certainly go either way.

Governor, Minnesota: Speaking of Trump's endorsement, it did not get the job done on the Republican side of this primary. The President backed loyal sycophant, and all around nutter, Mike Lindell. Lindell was left crying into his MyPillow, because he got thoroughly outclassed by Speaker of the Minnesota House Lisa Demuth, with 43.4% of the vote for her and 32.5% for him. Although the President bends over backwards to maintain a pristine batting average, this is his seventh endorsee to go down this primary season, a higher total than for any other election held while he was in office.

On the Democratic-Farmer-Labor side, Sen. Amy Klobuchar easily dispatched her several challengers, hauling in nearly 90% of the vote. Klobuchar is popular, has won statewide four times previously, it's barely a swing state anymore, and there figure to be Democratic tailwinds this year. Add it up, and it's hard to see how Klobuchar does not get chosen as the successor to Gov. Tim Walz (DFL). Early polling has the Senator up about 10 points.

CT-01: This seat is D+12, so it's going to stay in Democratic hands. However, there was a "generational change" election here yesterday, with 78-year-old incumbent John Larson (D) gunning for a 14th term against three younger upstarts. The Representative is going to have plenty of time to wave his fist at clouds, and to shout at kids to get off his lawn, come January 3, because he was knocked off by 47-year-old former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin. It is not often that a 13-term member gets primaried. (our emphasis)

Crowley upsets Hong in Wisconsin, Flanagan gets the nod for Senator in Minnesota, Trump-endorsed Graham in South Carolina couldn't avoid a runoff, and Trump-endorsed crackpot Lindell in Minnesota loses his bid.  We can live with those results.

Results from other primaries are at the link above.

Primaries Today -- Vote!

 

Several states are having their primaries for various offices.  Here's a McPaper summary:

Major battles in Wisconsin and Minnesota highlight a six-state primary field on Tuesday, Aug. 11. And much like in Michigan's Aug. 4 Democratic Senate primary, a progressive upstart candidate is making headlines in the Upper Midwest.

Outspoken state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, leads polls in a chaotic Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor despite being publicly ridiculed for her questionable past social media comments. Outgoing Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat who endorsed her rival Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, is publicly questioning if Hong could win the general election.

And in Minnesota, President Donald Trump is putting his winning endorsement record at stake by backing controversy-prone former MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell for governor in the Republican primary. The winner will face Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a likely lock in the Democratic primary, to replace embattled Gov. Tim Walz, who is not seeking a fourth term amid a [weaponized] federal investigation into widespread welfare fraud in the state.  [snip]

And in South Carolina, U.S. Senator Darline Graham, two congressmen and a former governor are among the 10 Republicans competing in a special primary election to replace her brother, the late U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, on the Palmetto State's general election ballot in November.

Even though Trump endorsed Graham, who was sworn in last month and became the first woman to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate, to complete the remaining months of her brother’s current term, she's not a lock to win the special contest. The crowded field could lead to a runoff if no candidate captures 50% of the vote.

Three other states, Alabama, Connecticut, and Vermont, will hold primaries ranging including congressional, state house seats and governor's races in the two New England states...

Wisconsin is the big focus for Dems today;  South Carolina for the Republican cult.  We hope if you're in any one of today's primary states that you exercise your right to vote.

Yesterday's Primary Elections (UPDATED)

 

What we see reported so far:

Both wings of the Democratic Party came out of Tuesday's contests victorious. But establishment Democrats gained a few more wins than the progressive arm of the party.

Progressives largest test — Michigan's Senate race— is yet to be determined. In a close matchup, former county health director Abdul El-Sayed was ahead of Rep. Haley Stevens early Wednesday morning. [Ed.: NBC News called the race for El-Sayed, though other outlets say it's too close to call.]

The heated contest is important for progressive Democrats. If El-Sayed wins, it shows there is an appetite for populist policies, like Medicare for All, even in a swing state. Stevens, who flipped a suburban area in 2018, is backed by establishment Democrats and has taken a more moderate approach.

Either way, the race makes it clear there is a stark divide among Democratic primary voters. Whoever wins the primary will face a tough challenge from Republican nominee former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers.

Progressives did pick up a win in Michigan's one true toss-up district. Progressive William Lawrence beat two other Democrats for the nomination. Lawrence is set to challenge first-term incumbent Rep. Tom Barrett in November.

Establishment Democrats got the candidates they wanted in a few key races. In Missouri's 1st Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Wesley Bell won a rematch against former Rep. Cori Bush. Bell was backed by the national party, while Bush clenched endorsements from Democratic socialists and high-profile progressives, such as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Bell will face Republican nominee Paul Berry in November, though Cook Political Report rates the district as solidly Democratic.

In Virginia, Democratic voters picked establishment-backed candidates for two House seats. The two seats, Virginia's 1st and 2nd congressional districts, are ones Democrats hope to flip in November to inch toward the party's goal of taking control of the chamber. [snip]

It was a tough loss for two Republican-led ballot initiatives in Missouri and Kansas.

No changes to the state supreme court bench are happening in Kansas' future. Voters there rejected a Republican-backed proposal for state supreme court justices to be elected instead of appointed.

Currently, judges for the state's highest court are appointed by the governor based on choices presented by a nominating committee. Most of the court has been appointed by the current and previous governors, both Democrats elected in the mostly Republican state. The court has upheld abortion rights among other stands objected to by Republican leaders.

Voters in Missouri voted against a proposal by the Republican-led legislature to make it harder for the public to pass future amendments to the state constitution... (our emphasis)

However these primaries turn out, the all-important thing is for Democrats to unite in the battle to defeat the Malignant Fascist and his fascist cult/ party in November.

UPDATE:  CNN joins NBC News in calling the election for El-Sayed.  AP, too.

Today's Primaries

 

There are primaries today in four States:  Maine, South Carolina, Nevada, and North Dakota. Those in Maine and South Carolina will be the most watched by observers:

Four states in all four corners of the country are set to hold elections on Tuesday, June 9, for U.S. House, Senate and governor races, among other local contests. The winners will head into a busy campaign season leading up to the November midterm elections, when Republicans will aim to hold onto to a narrow majority on Capitol Hill.

"These early June primaries can be used as tea-leaves to help predict what will happen in the November midterm election," says Chase Meyer, senior lecturer of political science at the University of South Carolina.  

South Carolina

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham is seeking a fifth term. While some senior senators have seen rebuke from the president this election cycle, Graham has received President Donald Trump's endorsement.

But he faces a crowded roster of GOP competitors: Greenville businessman Mark Lynch, Horry County businessman Pat Herrmann, author Thomas Dismukes, Duncan Town Councilmember Calvin Cowen and Columbia content creator Darius Mitchell, reports the Greenville News, part of the USA TODAY Network. Late May polling from The Citadel shows between Graham or Lynch, 46% of Republicans supported Graham and 36% supported Lynch.

If he wins the nomination, Graham is likely to face Democratic frontrunner, Annie Andrews, a pediatrician looking to flip the reliably red seat.

In the Republican primary for South Carolina governor, Trump has endorsed state Lt. Gov. Sam Evette, the first woman to hold the position in the state's history. Evette faces top Republican challenger Rep. Nancy Mace, who pointed to her push to release files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein as a reason why the president did not back her campaign.

The field to succeed Republican Gov. Henry McMaster, who is term limited, attracted a notable group that includes Mace and Evette, but also state Attorney General Alan Wilson, Rep. Ralph Norman and business executive Ron Reddy. For much of the campaign's final two-month stretch, polls have shown the contenders within striking distance of each other...

Maine 

A Senate race to watch will be Graham Platner's bid for the Democratic nomination in Maine.

Platner, an oyster farmer who will almost assuredly win the bid to face GOP Sen. Susan Collins in November, rallied the support of fellow Northeast Democratic Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders before his top competitor, Maine Gov. Janet Mills, suspended her Senate campaign on April 30. The move came as a surprise after some political watchers previously pointed to the Platner vs. Mills race as a possible proxy for the direction of the Democratic Party.

However, Platner's performance in the primary will still be followed as he battles multiple controversies. He faced criticism last year for a tattoo he had of a skull and crossbones that resembled a Nazi symbol, as well as old Reddit posts in which he made controversial comments on topics including sexual assault and race. On May 30, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times reported that Platner's wife, Amy Gertner, notified his campaign of sexual messages he had exchanged with several women before his campaign launched.

The June primary is expected to set up another closely-watched race between Platner and Collins this November. A general election poll released May 27 by the University of New Hampshire showed Platner with a 9-point lead over Collins.

Voting needs to be a habit, so we want to see sustained Democratic turnout in primaries and, of course, general elections.

Preliminary Primary Notes

 

The guys at Electoral-vote.com stayed up last night and came up with some storylines from yesterday's primaries in six states.  Here are a few highlights we've taken from four of those states, but for the fuller picture, please go to this link.

California

In the much-watched California gubernatorial election, things are still up in the air. With a shade over half the votes reported, Steve Hilton (R) has 27.6% of the vote, Xavier Becerra (D) has 25.5%, Tom Steyer (D) has 19.6% and Chad Bianco (R) has 11.3%. Bianco is done for; he barely won his home county (Riverside), and there's no way he can add enough votes to climb into second place. It will probably be Hilton and Becerra in the general, but there are enough votes still uncounted in Los Angeles and San Francisco that it's plausible for any two of the top three candidates to survive.  [snip]

In the Los Angeles mayoral race, reality TV star Spencer Pratt (I, but really R) has 29.1% of the vote, while City Councilwoman Nithya Raman (I, but really D) has 21.6%. We can't find anyone who has a heat map of the race, so we can't tell where the missing votes are, but nobody has called it for Pratt, so the missing votes must be substantially from the southern and eastern portions of Los Angeles...

Iowa

As the polls predicted, the race to replace Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) will pit Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) against state Rep. Josh Turek (D). Turek is the more moderate of the two Democrats who were in the running, was most certainly the "establishment" candidate, and has shown himself to be a skilled campaigner.

It is, of course, more probable than not that the Senate race will go to the same party that wins the gubernatorial race. So, if there's a blue backlash in the Hawkeye State in November, then it could certainly propel both [Dem State Auditor Rob] Sand and Turek to victory. One interesting thing about the Senate race is that the Hinson campaign has outraised the Turek campaign about 2-to-1 (roughly $6 million to $3 million), but that obscures the fact that most of the super PAC money has flowed in Turek's direction. In particular, VoteVets spent just shy of $10 million to help Turek secure the nomination...

Montana

In pretty much every important swing-y contest, the Democrats got what they wanted yesterday. That includes the U.S. Senate race in Montana. On the Republican side, it's going to be Kurt Alme, who conspired with Sen. Steve Daines (R) to claim the nomination by gaming the paperwork-filing process. On the Democratic side, in a mild upset, it's going to be Air Force Lt. Col. Alani Bankhead, who beat the more experienced and somewhat better known Reilly Neill, a former state representative.

Bankhead, by all indications, is not a serious candidate. She did little campaigning, and raised a grand total of $15,240, of which she spent only $5,775 (by contrast, Neill raised $277,088). The reason that "not a serious candidate" is good news for the Democrats is that it is expected that Bankhead will either withdraw from the race, or will not spend much energy on campaigning. That will help clear the decks for the blue team's actual candidate, former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar (I). It is possible that between not having a (D) next to his name, Alme's undemocratic gamesmanship, and the unfriendly-to-Republicans political climate, Bodnar could attract enough independent and crossover votes to win this thing.

New Jersey

Yesterday, Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) communicated, through his staff, that he will be away from Washington even longer than expected (and he's already been gone-without-a-trace for 3 months). We wonder if we will ever find out what is wrong with him, such that it precludes him from even making a video or posting a photograph assuring the voters he (ostensibly) represents that he is OK.

The ideal opponent to face Kean, in the EVEN NJ-07, would probably be a moderate woman who is young and vigorous and a veteran. And that is who the Democrats will have, as Rebecca Bennett easily outclassed the other three contenders for the Democratic nomination, taking 45.5% of the vote, to 20% for her nearest competitor. Will Kean even be able to campaign? Will New Jersey voters insist that he explain himself, and why he's been absent? Will he have to drop out, and be replaced by GOP pooh-bahs in the Garden State? These are all questions that undoubtedly are giving NRCC Chair Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC) ulcers right now.

We hope Republicans across the country are getting ulcers right now, too!