As we marinate in the "red mirage" part of the election, polling guru Nate Silver has some thoughts this morning that we should all keep in mind as absentee ballots start to get counted:
I think people need to put PA/MI in a different mental bucket than AZ/WI/NV/GA/NC. In PA/MI, much more of the vote is uncounted, and it's likely to take a while before it is counted. In those other states, we have a more finite sense of what's in and what's outstanding.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
So, what's left in Nevada is mail and provisionals. No more in-person votes. That's likely good news for Democrats, unless the late-arriving mail ballots were MUCH redder than the early-arriving ones. https://t.co/oTtD08cxAx
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
If Biden wins AZ, NV, MI and WI that's ballgame. He could lose PA, GA and NC and he'd still have 270.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
There's a LOT of vote left to count in MI and I haven't spent too much time looking at it myself, but it *seems* like it's mostly mail votes from blue counties which you'd think would be quite good for Biden.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
.@Nate_Cohn said something similar to this effect earlier, but the main thing about tonight is that people just aren't adjusting *nearly* enough for the partisan split in various categories of votes, i.e. *very* Dem mail ballots and *very* GOP Election Day in-person votes.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
It probably works out to Biden getting 52-ish percent of the popular vote on a turnout of 155 million-ish votes, which would be around 80 million. Trump might get say 73-75 million. Likely the top two popular vote totals in US history, both surpassing Obama '08.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 4, 2020
For additional affirmation this morning, check Nate Cohn's Twitter feed.
