Budget And Debt Ceiling Deal In The Works? (Updated)

The White House and Congressional leaders appear to have a deal on the budget and raising the debt limit into 2017:

Just before midnight on Monday, congressional lawmakers and the White House tentatively agreed on a major budget deal that would end such standoffs in the Obama presidency and solve a potentially catastrophic debt default coming within days.  [snip]

Under the arrangement detailed by congressional aides, the debt limit, predicted to be hit on Nov. 3, would be extended into March 2017 -- well into the next president's term.

Additionally, over the next two years, government spending would rise $80 billion above the caps that sequestration currently allows. That money would be doled out evenly between defense and non-defense accounts, with $50 billion budgeted for the first year and $30 billion for the second.

On top of that, the bill would include $32 billion for the overseas contingency fund -- a veritable piggybank for administrations to cover the costs of wars -- split over the next two years. That would bring the deal's total spending increase to $112 billion over two years.  [snip]

... The deal would extend the sequester's cuts to mandatory spending through 2025, which mostly involves a 2 percent cut in reimbursements to Medicare doctors. That reduction was scheduled to expire in 2021 under the 2011 Budget Control Act, which put sequestration into place. It was extended to 2023 under Murray-Ryan deal.

The new agreement also would prevent a 20 percent cut in benefits next year to the 11 million Americans enrolled in the Social Security Disability Insurance program. The cut would be avoided by diverting some of the incoming payroll tax money from Social Security's much bigger retirement insurance program for six years, something Republicans previously said they wouldn't do without cuts to benefits.

If the deal passes, it would accomplish (at least on the fiscal side) what outgoing Weeper of the House John "Mr. Tangerine Man" Boehner promised as his "cleaning out the barn" before his retirement at the end of this month, removing some contentious issues from Weeper- to- be Paul "Lyin'" Ryan's to- do list.   It would also mean Congress wouldn't be sabotaging the economy, at least for the balance of the Obama Administration.

The bill may be brought to the House floor for a quick vote in the next 24 hours.  As a "tell" for who got the best of the negotiations, look for the percentage of Republicans voting against it versus the percentage of Democrats voting for it.

UPDATE:  At least the head of Social Security Works thinks "the hostage has been released" as far as Social Security and Medicare are concerned  -- good news for getting Democratic support.

Bill Clinton On Republicans' Chilling Spitefulness

The "Explainer-in-Chief" on "This Week" (after the embedded ad -- sorry):

Weekly Presidential Address - Stop Messing With The American People, Republicans

President Obama to Rethuglicans:  pass a budget, pay our bills, and stop pretending you're going to end Obamacare.  Watch it:

Cartoon of the Day - Meeting Rethuglicans Half Way

(click to enlarge)

(Tom Toles, via gocomics.com)

Never Missing An Opportunity To Miss An Opportunity

As we've noted before, we believe that President Obama's negotiating style leaves a lot to be desired. First on health insurance reform, he capitulated on the public option before negotiations even began with a Rethuglican opposition that was not negotiating in good faith. Then, during the lame duck session, he caved on extensions of the Bushit tax cuts for the top 1%, despite broad public support for letting the rates rise on the rich. Recently, he played on the Rethuglicans' favorite field -- cutting gummint spending -- without even questioning their premises. Then there's Gitmo and his failure to support labor battles in Wisconsin, Ohio, etc. While this may earn him a handful of points with "independent" conservatives who won't vote for him at the end of the day, it's weakening his support with many progressives.

Concerning the upcoming budget war, the Kaplan Daily's Ruth "Magic" Marcus cites the White House's late-to-the-game response to the radical Rethuglican budget proposal (emphasis added):

"First, [Obama] did not lift a finger to help his co-chairs, Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, assemble the 14 votes necessary to get the commission’s plan a congressional vote. Then, when the plan was released, the president pointedly declined to express a view. He stuck to the vagueness strategy in his State of the Union address and his 2012 budget proposal. In the meantime, the void was filled — and the playing field was shifted even further rightward — by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan. The Wisconsin Republican unveiled a plan that makes the centrist Simpson-Bowles proposal look as if it were written by Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean."

We'll see how he does in today's unveiling of his "vision" on the budget. The fact that he's conceded turf to the Rethuglicans already on tax rates for the rich and deep cuts in spending isn't a promising start.

"Will the President Finally Engage?"

With the unsurprising announcement that President Obama's seeking a second term, 2012 election themes will start to take shape. It's clear Rethugs plan to make the size and role of government their overarching theme. That, according to E.J. Dionne, would be a good battleground for the President if only he would forcefully engage, preferably when the Rethugs release their Medicare-killing budget this week. Dionne concludes, "This most certainly is his time to stand up for the vision of a practical, progressive government that he once advanced so eloquently." Amen.

(UPDATE: Or with this be the approach?)

Good Question

"Washington Democrats have been too afraid and divided to engage compellingly on the fundamentals of what government is there to do and how the burdens of deficit reduction should be apportioned. Wisconsin Democrats have shown that the only way to win arguments is to take risks on behalf of what you believe. Are Washington Democrats prepared to learn this lesson?" -- E.J. Dionne in today's Kaplan Daily. We're wondering what President Obama and Dem leaders will do about the unequal sacrifices being proposed by Rethugs in the Federal budget, and the situation in Wisconsin. Waiting.

Waiting.

Quote of the Week

"It's pretty clear that the tea party Republicans who are demanding these cuts [see post below], and who have been allowed to drive the Republican budget strategy, don't really know or even care what programs work and what don't. So far, they've probably spent a grand total of 20 days in Washington, talking to themselves and learning little about the government they are meant to run. They wear their ignorance almost as a badge of honor." -- Steven Pearlstein in today's Kaplan Daily.

Losing the Message Battle Again

Two interesting, and related, pieces by Robert Reich and Dean Baker today. Both make the hard-to-argue-with case that once again, as in the health reform debate, Obama has ceded the terms of the budget/deficit debate to the Rethugs and their enablers in the "mainstream media." In losing the message battle, the war over the proper role of government in the economy and society is also being lost to the reactionaries and oligarchs that comprise the Rethuglican Party today. As you read these articles, see if you get the same feeling we get that this is a President who has an unerring knack for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory.

Reich argues simply that the budget cutting debate is "the wrong debate about the wrong thing at the wrong time." Baker says Obama, unlike teller of tales St. Ronnie of Hollywood, has missed the opportunity to tell the true story of how it's not government social spending, public employee unions and the deficit that are responsible for the economic mess we're in.