...[I]n terms of the implications for midterm elections in 2018, it’s much less clear that Republicans had a good night. For election forecasting purposes, the margins matter: that Ossoff and Parnell came fairly close to beating their opponents yields a different interpretation than if they’d been blown out. And South Carolina is an important data point, just as Georgia was, even if it received a fraction of as much media attention. The earlier special elections in Kansas’s 4th Congressional District and in Montana’s at-large district provide useful information about the political environment also.
Democrats have gone 0-for-4 in these races. From an emotional standpoint, the outcomes have been disheartening for Democrats. From an analytical standpoint, however, they’ve ranged between “not bad” and “pretty great” for Democrats as compared with their results from the 2012, 2014 and 2016 elections — consistent with the sorts of results Democrats would expect if they were on track to compete for the House next year. (our emphasis)Or to put it in cold numbers (click on chart to enlarge):
|(Screenshot - 538)|
BONUS: Looking at the Georgia race in the context of the past 16 years shows why Dems need to fight:
#GA06 margins thru history:— Tim Kempf (@Timbo_16_Slice) June 21, 2017
'04: R unopposed
'10: R unopposed
BONUS II: One takeaway is that Republicans come out and vote for Republicans no matter what. See Charles Pierce, Steve M., and Tengrain.