Why We Must Avoid Recriminations About Last Night's Special Election Results

We're going to try to avoid the welter of "hot takes" today about the results of last night's special elections in Georgia's 6th and South Carolina's 5th Congressional Districts. What we do want to stress is that going forward, recriminations about "woulda, coulda, shoulda" do progressives no good whatsoever. We'll go with 538's analysis of the actual performance in all the special elections held since dimbulb Donald "Rump" Trump was "elected":

...[I]n terms of the implications for midterm elections in 2018, it’s much less clear that Republicans had a good night. For election forecasting purposes, the margins matter: that Ossoff and Parnell came fairly close to beating their opponents yields a different interpretation than if they’d been blown out. And South Carolina is an important data point, just as Georgia was, even if it received a fraction of as much media attention. The earlier special elections in Kansas’s 4th Congressional District and in Montana’s at-large district provide useful information about the political environment also. 

Democrats have gone 0-for-4 in these races. From an emotional standpoint, the outcomes have been disheartening for Democrats. From an analytical standpoint, however, they’ve ranged between “not bad” and “pretty great” for Democrats as compared with their results from the 2012, 2014 and 2016 elections — consistent with the sorts of results Democrats would expect if they were on track to compete for the House next year. (our emphasis)

Or to put it in cold numbers (click on chart to enlarge):

(Screenshot - 538) 

Those are significant swings in districts that range from deep red to dark pink.  Republicans are whistling past the graveyard if they think their hold on the House is safer in 2018 as a result of these elections; and Democrats would be foolish if they interpret these losses as meaning they shouldn't actively compete in such districts in 2018. As the down- spiral of the Rump regime continues, as Republicans continue to push their toxic agenda, those swings should will get larger and more widespread across the country. We just have to continue to stick together and #resist.

BONUS: Looking at the Georgia race in the context of the past 16 years shows why Dems need to fight:

#GA06 margins thru history:
'02: R+59
'04: R unopposed
'06: R+45
'08: R+37
'10: R unopposed
'12: R+29
'14: R+33
'16: R+23
'17: R+<5#resist

— Tim Kempf (@Timbo_16_Slice) June 21, 2017

BONUS II:  One takeaway is that Republicans come out and vote for Republicans no matter what. See Charles Pierce, Steve M., and Tengrain.

TrumpCare And Georgia's Special Election

With Senate Republicans poised to bring their American- killing TrumpCare bill to the floor for a vote before July 4, it should be all hands on deck for everyone with a conscience and a sense of moral obligation to our fellow Americans. Two forces have the potential to shape the outcome:  your activism and the special election in Georgia's 6th Congressional District tomorrow, June 20.

There's the "TrumpCare toolkit" provided via Center for American Progress that makes it easier than ever to contact relevant Senators (click on link in the tweet):

The toolkit can:
- help you write a letter to the editor
- sends a fax to your senator
- leave Voicemail/callhttps://t.co/mYTkAgC2ni

— igorvolsky (@igorvolsky) June 17, 2017

The stakes, of course, will be life and death for some people if this soulless bill -- which would be cobbled together with the House's mean- spirited TrumpCare version in conference -- proceeds. If we get just 3 Republican Senators to vote against this travesty, it will fail. So, now is the time to stop it, and if we do, we'll also be delivering a blow to Republican efforts to provide tax cuts to the rich while gutting Medicaid.

Now, about the special election in Georgia's 6th District. Clearly, this is being touted as a referendum on the dolt in the White (Supremacist) House. But Democrat Jon Ossoff has used the TrumpCare bill as the tip of the spear in going after his Trump- supporting opponent. Rest assured, if Ossoff succeeds in winning this traditionally Republican suburban district (it went for Trump by 2 points), the nihilists in Congress will take note, because it endangers their skinny necks in 2018:

Ossoff's closing pitch all about GOP health care plan killing people. This is what Democrats will run on in 2018 ——> https://t.co/Syu0IhFPVe

— Jeff Stein (@JStein_Vox) June 18, 2017

The pitch:

When we’re out knocking on doors and talking to neighbors to get out the vote, let's remember why we’re doing this. pic.twitter.com/5Sf3dQ0yPD

— Jon Ossoff (@ossoff) June 7, 2017