The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll has rays of hope for Democrats as the midterm elections approach in 6 months:
In a positive indicator for Biden and his party, the Post-ABC poll also shows Democrats moving to rough parity with Republicans on intentions to vote in House races in November, often seen as a key indicator of the size of the potential shifts in the balance of power. Republicans need a net gain of five seats to capture control of the House from the Democrats, which would allow them to block Biden’s agenda for the last half of his term.
Today, 46 percent of registered voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their congressional district, compared with 45 percent who say they would vote for the Republican. Based on historical patterns, Democrats would likely need a bigger advantage to avoid losing their majority.
Yet last fall, Republicans held a 10-point edge and in February led by seven points on this question, known as the generic ballot. Nearly all of the change since February is the result of a shift toward the Democrats among self-identified independents, a group that can be volatile in public opinion polls.
Democrats have a 12-point margin among voters ages 18 to 39; in February, those voters were split about evenly between the two parties. Democrats have an advantage with these younger voters even though they disapprove of Biden’s performance by a 13-point margin, 52 percent to 39 percent.
When you've lost a 7 point advantage in just over 2 months, even as the GQP and useful idiots in the media have been hammering President Biden and Democrats on inflation and culture war issues, you're doing something wrong. No doubt a lot of the damage has been self- inflicted by the public's daily exposure to the dangerous clowns who inhabit the top ranks of the GQP cult. It also appears Biden's stagnant approval numbers aren't pulling down Democrats on the generic ballot. But, to be fair, the poll does show continuing issues for Democrats (including, unfortunately, enthusiasm), and there's plenty to be done -- including, ffs, going on offense with a strong, winning message that includes pointing out how far out of the mainstream the GQP is, and the further damage it could do to our democracy should it gain power again. If the January 6 committee hearings, scheduled to start in June, don't go a long way in accomplishing that goal, well ...
One statistic from one poll shouldn't give us a false sense of security. As we've said many times before, this is an existential struggle to save our democracy, and the only poll that counts is the one that voters deliver at the ballot box.
(Cartoon: Paul Szep, Tampa Bay Times)
